Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Alves, José
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Morgado, Sandro
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23361
Resumo: In our article we review the secular stagnation hypothesis, firstly postulated by Hansen (1939), to describe the current macroeconomic dynamics faced by developed economies. Based in the existing literature, we elaborate on a workable definition of secular stagnation founded on four pillars: diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages, lowering of nominal short term interest rates and increasingly immovable unemployment. This four-pillar definition reveals a fundamental problematic faced by these economies; while a diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages and an increasingly immovable unemployment stress the need for full employment policy measures, the lowering of nominal short term interest rates makes the mostly resorted to full employment policy measure, in the form of expansionary monetary policy, ineffective. This problematic implies an imperative rethinking of the policy framework in times of secular stagnation. For that, we consider one of the most evoked factorscausing secular stagnation, demographics in the form of an aging population and a declining working age population, hence highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution. We do so by empirically observing the pillars of secular stagnation and testing the impact of demographic factors on those features, resorting to panel data analysis. Focusing on the EU15 and US economies, with data ranging from 1965 to 2020, we conclude that the four pillars we based our definition of secular stagnation upon can be empirically observed and that demographic factors play a statistically significant role for those determining features thus highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution.
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spelling Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?Economic stagnationsecular stagnationfinancial crisisimmigrationmonetary policyIn our article we review the secular stagnation hypothesis, firstly postulated by Hansen (1939), to describe the current macroeconomic dynamics faced by developed economies. Based in the existing literature, we elaborate on a workable definition of secular stagnation founded on four pillars: diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages, lowering of nominal short term interest rates and increasingly immovable unemployment. This four-pillar definition reveals a fundamental problematic faced by these economies; while a diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages and an increasingly immovable unemployment stress the need for full employment policy measures, the lowering of nominal short term interest rates makes the mostly resorted to full employment policy measure, in the form of expansionary monetary policy, ineffective. This problematic implies an imperative rethinking of the policy framework in times of secular stagnation. For that, we consider one of the most evoked factorscausing secular stagnation, demographics in the form of an aging population and a declining working age population, hence highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution. We do so by empirically observing the pillars of secular stagnation and testing the impact of demographic factors on those features, resorting to panel data analysis. Focusing on the EU15 and US economies, with data ranging from 1965 to 2020, we conclude that the four pillars we based our definition of secular stagnation upon can be empirically observed and that demographic factors play a statistically significant role for those determining features thus highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution.ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAlves, JoséMorgado, Sandro2022-02-02T18:39:51Z2022-012022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23361engAlves, José e Sandro Morgado (2022). "Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0212 – 20222184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:54Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23361Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:36.891936Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
spellingShingle Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
Alves, José
Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
title_short Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_full Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_fullStr Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_full_unstemmed Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_sort Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
author Alves, José
author_facet Alves, José
Morgado, Sandro
author_role author
author2 Morgado, Sandro
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Alves, José
Morgado, Sandro
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
topic Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
description In our article we review the secular stagnation hypothesis, firstly postulated by Hansen (1939), to describe the current macroeconomic dynamics faced by developed economies. Based in the existing literature, we elaborate on a workable definition of secular stagnation founded on four pillars: diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages, lowering of nominal short term interest rates and increasingly immovable unemployment. This four-pillar definition reveals a fundamental problematic faced by these economies; while a diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages and an increasingly immovable unemployment stress the need for full employment policy measures, the lowering of nominal short term interest rates makes the mostly resorted to full employment policy measure, in the form of expansionary monetary policy, ineffective. This problematic implies an imperative rethinking of the policy framework in times of secular stagnation. For that, we consider one of the most evoked factorscausing secular stagnation, demographics in the form of an aging population and a declining working age population, hence highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution. We do so by empirically observing the pillars of secular stagnation and testing the impact of demographic factors on those features, resorting to panel data analysis. Focusing on the EU15 and US economies, with data ranging from 1965 to 2020, we conclude that the four pillars we based our definition of secular stagnation upon can be empirically observed and that demographic factors play a statistically significant role for those determining features thus highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-02T18:39:51Z
2022-01
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23361
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23361
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Alves, José e Sandro Morgado (2022). "Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0212 – 2022
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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