Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva
Data de Publicação: 2021
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/22570
Resumo: Mestrado Bolonha em Economia Monetária e Financeira
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spelling Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?Economic stagnationsecular stagnationfinancial crisisimmigrationmonetary policyMestrado Bolonha em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraIn 2013, Summers (2015) revived the secular stagnation hypothesis, firstly postulated by Hansen (1939), to describe the current macroeconomic picture faced by developed economies. This dissertation assesses this claim. Taking into consideration the inputs from several authors, we elaborate on a workable definition of secular stagnation erected on four pillars: diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages, lowering of nominal short term interest rates and increasingly immovable unemployment. This four-pillar definition reveals a fundamental problematic faced by these economies; while a diminished long run growth potential, increasing aggregate demand shortages and an increasingly immovable unemployment stress the need for full employment policy measures, the lowering of nominal short term interest rates makes the mostly resorted to full employment policy measure, in the form of expansionary monetary policy, ineffective. This problematic implies an imperative rethinking of the policy framework in times of secular stagnation. For this rethinking, we consider one of the most evoked factors causing secular stagnation, demographics in the form of an aging population and a declining working age population, hence highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution. We do so by empirically observing the pillars of secular stagnation and testing the impact of demographic factors on those features, setting four linear regressions in which each of those pillars are set as the explained variables and demographic factors set as explaining variables. We then test the impact of these demographic factors resorting to panel data analysis. Focusing on the EU15 and US economies, with data ranging from 1965 to 2020, we conclude that the four pillars we based our definition of secular stagnation upon can be empirically observed and that demographic factors play a statistically significant role for those determining features thus highlighting the pertinence of immigration as a possible solution.Instituto Superior de Economia e GestãoAlves, JoséRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMorgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva2021-11-27T17:06:50Z2021-092021-09-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/22570engMorgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva (2021). "Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:06Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/22570Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:06:58.080402Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
spellingShingle Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva
Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
title_short Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_full Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_fullStr Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_full_unstemmed Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
title_sort Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?
author Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva
author_facet Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Alves, José
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
topic Economic stagnation
secular stagnation
financial crisis
immigration
monetary policy
description Mestrado Bolonha em Economia Monetária e Financeira
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-11-27T17:06:50Z
2021-09
2021-09-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/22570
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/22570
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Morgado, Sandro Miguel da Silva (2021). "Secular stagnation : is immigration part of the solution?". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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