The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Farinha, Beatriz Isabel David
Data de Publicação: 2024
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/164841
Resumo: Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
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spelling The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese marketSynthetic Control MethodHouse Price IndexGolden VisasCounterfactualSDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructureSDG 10 - Reduced inequalitiesSDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communitiesSDG 17 - Partnerships for the goalsDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Naturais::Ciências da Computação e da InformaçãoDissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementPortugal contends with the controversial ramifications of its Golden Visa program on the dynamics of the housing market, especially since its establishment in 2012.The program's focal point lies in the substantial capital infusion into real estate, intensifying debates on its influence. This study employs a synthetic control method (SCM) to assess the impact of Portugal's Golden Visa program on the Housing Price Index (HPI). Our research constructs counterfactual scenarios for Portugal by leveraging SCM. The optimal weighted average of HPI values from other EU countries without Golden Visa programs serves as the basis for the counterfactual. Our findings indicate that, contrary to the concerns and debates surrounding the Golden Visa program, there is no statistically significant impact on Portugal's HPI from 2012 to 2021. Extending the analysis to other EU countries the Generalized Synthetic Control Method unveils nuanced insights, emphasizing the need for robust, complete datasets for accurate synthetic control construction. This study contributes to the growing literature on the causal effects of policy interventions by employing robust methodologies to address the complexities of economic impacts on housing markets.Damásio, Bruno Miguel PintoRUNFarinha, Beatriz Isabel David2024-03-13T10:01:51Z2024-02-012024-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/164841TID:203544331enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-18T01:46:29Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/164841Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T04:02:02.046357Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
title The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
spellingShingle The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
Farinha, Beatriz Isabel David
Synthetic Control Method
House Price Index
Golden Visas
Counterfactual
SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure
SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities
SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities
SDG 17 - Partnerships for the goals
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Naturais::Ciências da Computação e da Informação
title_short The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
title_full The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
title_fullStr The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
title_full_unstemmed The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
title_sort The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
author Farinha, Beatriz Isabel David
author_facet Farinha, Beatriz Isabel David
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Damásio, Bruno Miguel Pinto
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Farinha, Beatriz Isabel David
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Synthetic Control Method
House Price Index
Golden Visas
Counterfactual
SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure
SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities
SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities
SDG 17 - Partnerships for the goals
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Naturais::Ciências da Computação e da Informação
topic Synthetic Control Method
House Price Index
Golden Visas
Counterfactual
SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure
SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities
SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities
SDG 17 - Partnerships for the goals
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Naturais::Ciências da Computação e da Informação
description Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-13T10:01:51Z
2024-02-01
2024-02-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/164841
TID:203544331
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/164841
identifier_str_mv TID:203544331
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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