Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54338 |
Resumo: | Long-term developments in carbon dioxide emissions have tracked the middle of projected emission scenario ranges over the past three decades. If this tendency continues, it seems increasingly less likely that future emissions will follow current high-emission scenarios. However, in the past, periods of slow and fast global emissions growth was observed, which have led to previous critiques of scenarios being too low or too high. In the light of such unpredictability and since scenarios are meant to explore plausible futures, we here argue that a broad range of emission scenarios continue to be considered input in scenario-based analyses of future climate change. Furthermore, we find substantial regional differences in emissions trends. Territorial emissions in OECD countries fall on the low side of emission scenario ranges, whereas non-OECD territorial emissions fell closer to the medium or high-end. Since non-OECD emissions will become increasingly important, we recommend further exploring the relationships between regional and global emissions to support scenario assumptions and climate policymaking. |
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Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analysesLong-term developments in carbon dioxide emissions have tracked the middle of projected emission scenario ranges over the past three decades. If this tendency continues, it seems increasingly less likely that future emissions will follow current high-emission scenarios. However, in the past, periods of slow and fast global emissions growth was observed, which have led to previous critiques of scenarios being too low or too high. In the light of such unpredictability and since scenarios are meant to explore plausible futures, we here argue that a broad range of emission scenarios continue to be considered input in scenario-based analyses of future climate change. Furthermore, we find substantial regional differences in emissions trends. Territorial emissions in OECD countries fall on the low side of emission scenario ranges, whereas non-OECD territorial emissions fell closer to the medium or high-end. Since non-OECD emissions will become increasingly important, we recommend further exploring the relationships between regional and global emissions to support scenario assumptions and climate policymaking.NatureRepositório da Universidade de LisboaPedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristanvan Vuuren, Detlef P.Aparício, Bruno A.Swart, RobGupta, JoyeetaSantos, Filipe2022-09-06T12:27:48Z2020-102020-10-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/54338engPedersen, J.S.T., van Vuuren, D.P., Aparício, B.A. et al. Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses. Commun Earth Environ 1, 41 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00045-y10.1038/s43247-020-00045-yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T17:00:44Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/54338Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:05:13.253559Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
title |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
spellingShingle |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan |
title_short |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
title_full |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
title_fullStr |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
title_sort |
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses |
author |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan |
author_facet |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan van Vuuren, Detlef P. Aparício, Bruno A. Swart, Rob Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
van Vuuren, Detlef P. Aparício, Bruno A. Swart, Rob Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan van Vuuren, Detlef P. Aparício, Bruno A. Swart, Rob Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe |
description |
Long-term developments in carbon dioxide emissions have tracked the middle of projected emission scenario ranges over the past three decades. If this tendency continues, it seems increasingly less likely that future emissions will follow current high-emission scenarios. However, in the past, periods of slow and fast global emissions growth was observed, which have led to previous critiques of scenarios being too low or too high. In the light of such unpredictability and since scenarios are meant to explore plausible futures, we here argue that a broad range of emission scenarios continue to be considered input in scenario-based analyses of future climate change. Furthermore, we find substantial regional differences in emissions trends. Territorial emissions in OECD countries fall on the low side of emission scenario ranges, whereas non-OECD territorial emissions fell closer to the medium or high-end. Since non-OECD emissions will become increasingly important, we recommend further exploring the relationships between regional and global emissions to support scenario assumptions and climate policymaking. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z 2022-09-06T12:27:48Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54338 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/54338 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Pedersen, J.S.T., van Vuuren, D.P., Aparício, B.A. et al. Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses. Commun Earth Environ 1, 41 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00045-y 10.1038/s43247-020-00045-y |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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