Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Sandra
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Gonçalves, Ana, Zêzere, José
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/46314
Resumo: Recent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece and Australia. Sociodemographic changes in rural areas and climate change issues create unprecedented and challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment of fire management strategies and planning tools. In this research, we revise the procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal in a structural perspective. Based on a dataset of burned areas covering 44 years and a set of predisposing factors related to topography and landcover, we tested several susceptibility models using the Likelihood Ratio method, to calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed using national detailed sources and considering different timeframes. Hazard levels were obtained by combining the susceptibility model with the best accuracy and the probability to burn estimated from fire history (1975-2018). The resulting hazard values were classified in 5 levels based on the breaks of the success curve, instead of quantiles as in previous maps, to ensure territorial continuity at different spatial scales. The results show where the combination of terrain features is more favorable to fire propagation. The higher favourability scores were found for shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork and holm forests show lower scores. Eucalyptus and maritime pine forests show similar intermediate scores and have increased since 2007. The two highest hazard classes classify correctly 90% of the burned area over 44 years, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. If integrated in spatial planning instruments, in conjunction with municipal plans, the two most hazardous classes may hinder the expansion of built-up areas. About 2% of the municipalities have more than 90% of their territory classified as hazardous, whereas 32% of the municipalities have, instead, less than 10% of hazardous area. These structural maps are a useful baseline for a long-term approach and can be complemented by estimations regarding the behavior and severity of wildfires, which should be further explored.
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spelling Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland PortugalWildfiresSusceptibility modelHazard mapStructural approachSpatial planningRecent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece and Australia. Sociodemographic changes in rural areas and climate change issues create unprecedented and challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment of fire management strategies and planning tools. In this research, we revise the procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal in a structural perspective. Based on a dataset of burned areas covering 44 years and a set of predisposing factors related to topography and landcover, we tested several susceptibility models using the Likelihood Ratio method, to calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed using national detailed sources and considering different timeframes. Hazard levels were obtained by combining the susceptibility model with the best accuracy and the probability to burn estimated from fire history (1975-2018). The resulting hazard values were classified in 5 levels based on the breaks of the success curve, instead of quantiles as in previous maps, to ensure territorial continuity at different spatial scales. The results show where the combination of terrain features is more favorable to fire propagation. The higher favourability scores were found for shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork and holm forests show lower scores. Eucalyptus and maritime pine forests show similar intermediate scores and have increased since 2007. The two highest hazard classes classify correctly 90% of the burned area over 44 years, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. If integrated in spatial planning instruments, in conjunction with municipal plans, the two most hazardous classes may hinder the expansion of built-up areas. About 2% of the municipalities have more than 90% of their territory classified as hazardous, whereas 32% of the municipalities have, instead, less than 10% of hazardous area. These structural maps are a useful baseline for a long-term approach and can be complemented by estimations regarding the behavior and severity of wildfires, which should be further explored.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaOliveira, SandraGonçalves, AnaZêzere, José2022-11-01T01:30:46Z20212021-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/46314engOliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., & Zêzere, J. L. (2021). Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal. Science of the Total Environment, 762, 143121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.1431210048-969710.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143121info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:48:35Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/46314Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:58:32.971774Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
title Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
spellingShingle Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
Oliveira, Sandra
WildfiresSusceptibility model
Hazard map
Structural approach
Spatial planning
title_short Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
title_full Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
title_fullStr Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
title_sort Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal
author Oliveira, Sandra
author_facet Oliveira, Sandra
Gonçalves, Ana
Zêzere, José
author_role author
author2 Gonçalves, Ana
Zêzere, José
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Oliveira, Sandra
Gonçalves, Ana
Zêzere, José
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv WildfiresSusceptibility model
Hazard map
Structural approach
Spatial planning
topic WildfiresSusceptibility model
Hazard map
Structural approach
Spatial planning
description Recent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece and Australia. Sociodemographic changes in rural areas and climate change issues create unprecedented and challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment of fire management strategies and planning tools. In this research, we revise the procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal in a structural perspective. Based on a dataset of burned areas covering 44 years and a set of predisposing factors related to topography and landcover, we tested several susceptibility models using the Likelihood Ratio method, to calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed using national detailed sources and considering different timeframes. Hazard levels were obtained by combining the susceptibility model with the best accuracy and the probability to burn estimated from fire history (1975-2018). The resulting hazard values were classified in 5 levels based on the breaks of the success curve, instead of quantiles as in previous maps, to ensure territorial continuity at different spatial scales. The results show where the combination of terrain features is more favorable to fire propagation. The higher favourability scores were found for shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork and holm forests show lower scores. Eucalyptus and maritime pine forests show similar intermediate scores and have increased since 2007. The two highest hazard classes classify correctly 90% of the burned area over 44 years, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. If integrated in spatial planning instruments, in conjunction with municipal plans, the two most hazardous classes may hinder the expansion of built-up areas. About 2% of the municipalities have more than 90% of their territory classified as hazardous, whereas 32% of the municipalities have, instead, less than 10% of hazardous area. These structural maps are a useful baseline for a long-term approach and can be complemented by estimations regarding the behavior and severity of wildfires, which should be further explored.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
2022-11-01T01:30:46Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/46314
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/46314
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., & Zêzere, J. L. (2021). Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal. Science of the Total Environment, 762, 143121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143121
0048-9697
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143121
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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