Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Zêzere, José
Data de Publicação: 2010
Outros Autores: Verde, João
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/36872
Resumo: A comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility, that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results. The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning factors: elevation, slope, land cover, rainfall and temperature. Moreover, the wildfire recurring pattern is also considered, as a proxy variable expressing the influence of human action in wildfire occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the weight of each individual theme within the susceptibility model. Validation of the wildfire susceptibility models is made through the computation of success rate and prediction rate curves. The results show that it is possible to have a good compromise between the number of variables within the model and the model predictive power. Additionally, it is shown that integration of climatic variables does not produce any relevant increase in the prediction capacity of wildfire susceptibility models. Finally, the prediction rate curves produced by the independent cross validation are used to assess the probabilistic wildfire hazard at a scenario basis, for the complete mainland Portuguese territory.
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spelling Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in PortugalWildfire susceptibilityHazardPortugalA comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility, that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results. The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning factors: elevation, slope, land cover, rainfall and temperature. Moreover, the wildfire recurring pattern is also considered, as a proxy variable expressing the influence of human action in wildfire occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the weight of each individual theme within the susceptibility model. Validation of the wildfire susceptibility models is made through the computation of success rate and prediction rate curves. The results show that it is possible to have a good compromise between the number of variables within the model and the model predictive power. Additionally, it is shown that integration of climatic variables does not produce any relevant increase in the prediction capacity of wildfire susceptibility models. Finally, the prediction rate curves produced by the independent cross validation are used to assess the probabilistic wildfire hazard at a scenario basis, for the complete mainland Portuguese territory.Copernicus PublicationsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaZêzere, JoséVerde, João2019-02-06T14:28:45Z20102010-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/36872engVerde, J. C., Zêzere, J. L.(2010). Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 485-497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-485-2010.1561-863310.5194/nhess-10-485-2010info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:33:42Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/36872Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:51:01.936481Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
title Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
spellingShingle Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
Zêzere, José
Wildfire susceptibility
Hazard
Portugal
title_short Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
title_full Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
title_fullStr Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
title_sort Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal
author Zêzere, José
author_facet Zêzere, José
Verde, João
author_role author
author2 Verde, João
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Zêzere, José
Verde, João
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Wildfire susceptibility
Hazard
Portugal
topic Wildfire susceptibility
Hazard
Portugal
description A comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility, that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results. The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning factors: elevation, slope, land cover, rainfall and temperature. Moreover, the wildfire recurring pattern is also considered, as a proxy variable expressing the influence of human action in wildfire occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the weight of each individual theme within the susceptibility model. Validation of the wildfire susceptibility models is made through the computation of success rate and prediction rate curves. The results show that it is possible to have a good compromise between the number of variables within the model and the model predictive power. Additionally, it is shown that integration of climatic variables does not produce any relevant increase in the prediction capacity of wildfire susceptibility models. Finally, the prediction rate curves produced by the independent cross validation are used to assess the probabilistic wildfire hazard at a scenario basis, for the complete mainland Portuguese territory.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2010-01-01T00:00:00Z
2019-02-06T14:28:45Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/36872
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/36872
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Verde, J. C., Zêzere, J. L.(2010). Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 485-497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-485-2010.
1561-8633
10.5194/nhess-10-485-2010
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus Publications
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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