Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17266 |
Resumo: | Global change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes. The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeo graphic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%- 50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable. The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level. |
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Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in SpainModelando os impactos das mudanças climáticas na adequação do habitat e vulnerabilidade em florestas decíduas na EspanhaBioclimatologyBiogeographyClimate changeDeciduous forestsHabitat suitabilitySpainGlobal change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes. The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeo graphic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%- 50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable. The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level.ElsevierSapientiadel Río, S.Canas, R.Cano, E.Cano-Ortiz, A.Musarella, C.Pinto-Gomes, C.Penas, A.2021-10-29T13:10:34Z2021-112021-11-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17266eng10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.1082021872-7034info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-24T10:29:25Zoai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/17266Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:07:17.461408Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain Modelando os impactos das mudanças climáticas na adequação do habitat e vulnerabilidade em florestas decíduas na Espanha |
title |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
spellingShingle |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain del Río, S. Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain |
title_short |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
title_full |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
title_sort |
Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain |
author |
del Río, S. |
author_facet |
del Río, S. Canas, R. Cano, E. Cano-Ortiz, A. Musarella, C. Pinto-Gomes, C. Penas, A. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Canas, R. Cano, E. Cano-Ortiz, A. Musarella, C. Pinto-Gomes, C. Penas, A. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Sapientia |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
del Río, S. Canas, R. Cano, E. Cano-Ortiz, A. Musarella, C. Pinto-Gomes, C. Penas, A. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain |
topic |
Bioclimatology Biogeography Climate change Deciduous forests Habitat suitability Spain |
description |
Global change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes. The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeo graphic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%- 50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable. The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-29T13:10:34Z 2021-11 2021-11-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17266 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17266 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108202 1872-7034 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799133317581242368 |