Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carvalho,Monica Canaan
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Gomide,Lucas Rezende, Acerbi Júnior,Fausto Weimar, Tng,David
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Floresta e Ambiente
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300142
Resumo: ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.
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spelling Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Changecandeia treesrandom forestshabitat suitabilityABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro2019-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300142Floresta e Ambiente v.26 n.3 2019reponame:Floresta e Ambienteinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)instacron:UFRJ10.1590/2179-8087.045518info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCarvalho,Monica CanaanGomide,Lucas RezendeAcerbi Júnior,Fausto WeimarTng,Davideng2019-09-13T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2179-80872019000300142Revistahttps://www.floram.org/PUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpfloramjournal@gmail.com||floram@ufrrj.br||2179-80871415-0980opendoar:2019-09-13T00:00Floresta e Ambiente - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
title Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
spellingShingle Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
Carvalho,Monica Canaan
candeia trees
random forests
habitat suitability
title_short Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
title_full Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
title_fullStr Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
title_sort Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
author Carvalho,Monica Canaan
author_facet Carvalho,Monica Canaan
Gomide,Lucas Rezende
Acerbi Júnior,Fausto Weimar
Tng,David
author_role author
author2 Gomide,Lucas Rezende
Acerbi Júnior,Fausto Weimar
Tng,David
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carvalho,Monica Canaan
Gomide,Lucas Rezende
Acerbi Júnior,Fausto Weimar
Tng,David
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv candeia trees
random forests
habitat suitability
topic candeia trees
random forests
habitat suitability
description ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300142
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300142
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/2179-8087.045518
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Floresta e Ambiente v.26 n.3 2019
reponame:Floresta e Ambiente
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
instacron:UFRJ
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
instacron_str UFRJ
institution UFRJ
reponame_str Floresta e Ambiente
collection Floresta e Ambiente
repository.name.fl_str_mv Floresta e Ambiente - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv floramjournal@gmail.com||floram@ufrrj.br||
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