Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Gadelha, Sérgio, Silva, Agatha
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20636
Resumo: This paper provides new insights on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).
id RCAP_3b4119eb6bc069c2c9a359dbf91e5bb3
oai_identifier_str oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/20636
network_acronym_str RCAP
network_name_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository_id_str 7160
spelling Public Debt and Economic Growth in BrazilGranger causalityVector AutoregressiveAutoregressive Distributed Laggovernment debteconomic growthBrazilThis paper provides new insights on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioGadelha, SérgioSilva, Agatha2020-12-11T17:57:35Z2020-122020-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20636engAfonso, António, Sérgio Gadelha e Agatha Silva (2020). "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0148 – 20202184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:50:04Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/20636Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:05:19.745715Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
title Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
spellingShingle Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
Afonso, António
Granger causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
government debt
economic growth
Brazil
title_short Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
title_full Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
title_fullStr Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
title_sort Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil
author Afonso, António
author_facet Afonso, António
Gadelha, Sérgio
Silva, Agatha
author_role author
author2 Gadelha, Sérgio
Silva, Agatha
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Afonso, António
Gadelha, Sérgio
Silva, Agatha
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Granger causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
government debt
economic growth
Brazil
topic Granger causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
government debt
economic growth
Brazil
description This paper provides new insights on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-12-11T17:57:35Z
2020-12
2020-12-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20636
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20636
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Afonso, António, Sérgio Gadelha e Agatha Silva (2020). "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0148 – 2020
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1799131145728688128

Registros relacionados