Public debt and economic growth in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva, Agatha
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Afonso, António, Gadelha, Sérgio R. de Brito
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/26922
Resumo: This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).
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spelling Public debt and economic growth in BrazilGranger CausalityVector AutoregressiveAutoregressive Distributed LagGovernment DebtBrazilThis paper provides new evidence on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).TesouroNacionalRepositório da Universidade de LisboaSilva, AgathaAfonso, AntónioGadelha, Sérgio R. de Brito2023-01-17T15:19:11Z20212021-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/26922engSilva, Agatha; António Afonso and Sérgio R. de Brito Gadelha .(2021). “Public debt and economic growth in Brazil”. Public Finance Notebooks, Vol. 20, No. 3: pp. 1-46info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:56:21Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/26922Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:10:28.471825Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
title Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
spellingShingle Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
Silva, Agatha
Granger Causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Government Debt
Brazil
title_short Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
title_full Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
title_fullStr Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
title_sort Public debt and economic growth in Brazil
author Silva, Agatha
author_facet Silva, Agatha
Afonso, António
Gadelha, Sérgio R. de Brito
author_role author
author2 Afonso, António
Gadelha, Sérgio R. de Brito
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv TesouroNacional
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva, Agatha
Afonso, António
Gadelha, Sérgio R. de Brito
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Granger Causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Government Debt
Brazil
topic Granger Causality
Vector Autoregressive
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Government Debt
Brazil
description This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil. We used Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies, and monthly data over the period 1998:1-2019:11. We find that: i) debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship; ii) debt can improve growth in the short run and becomes harmful in the long run; iii) GDP growth always reduces debt, both in the short and long run; iv) the dynamic between debt and growth in the long run is influenced by the inflation rate, exchange rate and the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (Embi+).
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
2023-01-17T15:19:11Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/26922
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/26922
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Silva, Agatha; António Afonso and Sérgio R. de Brito Gadelha .(2021). “Public debt and economic growth in Brazil”. Public Finance Notebooks, Vol. 20, No. 3: pp. 1-46
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
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instacron_str RCAAP
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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