Revenue forecast errors in the European Union
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6518 |
Resumo: | In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour. |
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Revenue forecast errors in the European UnionMacro ForecastsRevenue Forecast ErrorsEuropean UnionIn this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour.UECE is supported by Fundacão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) through the project PEst-OE/EGE/UI0436/2011.ISEG - Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioCarvalho, Rui2014-02-18T14:41:53Z2014-022014-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6518engAfonso, António, Rui Carvalho. 2014. "Revenue forecast errors in the European Union". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE/ Working papers nº 2-2014/DE/UECE2183-1815info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:37:22Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/6518Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:53:53.187297Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
title |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
spellingShingle |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union Afonso, António Macro Forecasts Revenue Forecast Errors European Union |
title_short |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
title_full |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
title_fullStr |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
title_sort |
Revenue forecast errors in the European Union |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Carvalho, Rui |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carvalho, Rui |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Carvalho, Rui |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Macro Forecasts Revenue Forecast Errors European Union |
topic |
Macro Forecasts Revenue Forecast Errors European Union |
description |
In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-02-18T14:41:53Z 2014-02 2014-02-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6518 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6518 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António, Rui Carvalho. 2014. "Revenue forecast errors in the European Union". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE/ Working papers nº 2-2014/DE/UECE 2183-1815 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - Departamento de Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - Departamento de Economia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131014802440192 |