Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7435 |
Resumo: | In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour. |
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Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Unionmacro forecastsrevenue forecast errorsEUIn this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour.ISEG – Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioCarvalho, Rui2014-11-06T11:21:27Z20142014-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7435engAfonso, António e Rui Carvalho (2014). "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 2/2014/DE/UECE2183-1815info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:38:09Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/7435Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:54:36.849997Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
title |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
spellingShingle |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union Afonso, António macro forecasts revenue forecast errors EU |
title_short |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
title_full |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
title_fullStr |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
title_sort |
Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Carvalho, Rui |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carvalho, Rui |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Carvalho, Rui |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
macro forecasts revenue forecast errors EU |
topic |
macro forecasts revenue forecast errors EU |
description |
In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for t, increases in the corporate tax rate implies a decrease in the revenue forecast errors, in t+1 and t+2. Moreover, an increase in GDP forecast errors decreases revenue errors, whereas an increase in the inflation error will increase revenue errors. GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate tax rate changes can be associated with optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, yield, inflation errors and VAT tax rate changes are associated with more prudent forecast behaviour. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-11-06T11:21:27Z 2014 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7435 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7435 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António e Rui Carvalho (2014). "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 2/2014/DE/UECE 2183-1815 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – Departamento de Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – Departamento de Economia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131022873329664 |