To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23716 |
Resumo: | We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the debt-stabilizing primary balance (provided by the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis) for each country. We then link the need for and the actual (historical) existence of fiscal adjustments to their sustainability impact. Looking at a large sample of developed and developing economics over the period 1980-2018, we find that, on average, there is a higher need of consolidations in advanced economies than in developing economies. In addition, the implementation of a fiscal consolidation program implies an improvement in the degree of public finances´ sustainability, for in advanced and developing economies. Finally, fiscal sustainability deteriorates when the need to implement a fiscal retrenchment arises. |
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To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainabilityfiscal consolidationscyclically-adjusted primary balancesustainabilitypanel datatime-varyingWe assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the debt-stabilizing primary balance (provided by the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis) for each country. We then link the need for and the actual (historical) existence of fiscal adjustments to their sustainability impact. Looking at a large sample of developed and developing economics over the period 1980-2018, we find that, on average, there is a higher need of consolidations in advanced economies than in developing economies. In addition, the implementation of a fiscal consolidation program implies an improvement in the degree of public finances´ sustainability, for in advanced and developing economies. Finally, fiscal sustainability deteriorates when the need to implement a fiscal retrenchment arises.ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioAlves, JoséJalles, João Tovar2022-03-05T17:01:50Z2022-032022-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23716engAfonso, António, José Alves e João Tovar Jalles (2022). "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0217 – 20222184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:53:21Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23716Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:53.519296Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
title |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
spellingShingle |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability Afonso, António fiscal consolidations cyclically-adjusted primary balance sustainability panel data time-varying |
title_short |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
title_full |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
title_fullStr |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
title_full_unstemmed |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
title_sort |
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Alves, José Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
fiscal consolidations cyclically-adjusted primary balance sustainability panel data time-varying |
topic |
fiscal consolidations cyclically-adjusted primary balance sustainability panel data time-varying |
description |
We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the debt-stabilizing primary balance (provided by the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis) for each country. We then link the need for and the actual (historical) existence of fiscal adjustments to their sustainability impact. Looking at a large sample of developed and developing economics over the period 1980-2018, we find that, on average, there is a higher need of consolidations in advanced economies than in developing economies. In addition, the implementation of a fiscal consolidation program implies an improvement in the degree of public finances´ sustainability, for in advanced and developing economies. Finally, fiscal sustainability deteriorates when the need to implement a fiscal retrenchment arises. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-03-05T17:01:50Z 2022-03 2022-03-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23716 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23716 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António, José Alves e João Tovar Jalles (2022). "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0217 – 2022 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131173422628864 |