The economy and new political parties

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, Daniel Alves
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/23037
Resumo: Does the economy affect the electoral success of new political parties? Despite the profound scholarly interest on this subject, previous studies have not found consistent empirical evidence linking economic conditions to new party success. We argue in this thesis that the lack of compelling evidence derives from incorrectly drawn expectations about this precise relationship. By and large, previous scholars claim that bad economic conjunctures drive voters to support new political parties. This seems not always to be the case, however, as voters can punish incumbents for poor economic performance by supporting opposition parties instead. As such, we argue that new parties only benefit from bad economic conditions if voters are discontented with the existing parties as a whole. We tested this hypothesis drawing on a unique dataset that comprises all elections to the national legislatures in west European countries of the European Union, from 1986 to 2015. Statistical evidence appears to corroborate the aforementioned claim. Unfavorable economic conjunctures benefit new entrants if there is a large pool of discontented individuals. On the other hand, poor economic performance appears to slightly hamper their electoral success if voters are fairly satisfied with the existing parties.
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spelling The economy and new political partiesPartidos políticosUnião Europeia - 1986-2015Condições económicasEconomia de mercadoDoes the economy affect the electoral success of new political parties? Despite the profound scholarly interest on this subject, previous studies have not found consistent empirical evidence linking economic conditions to new party success. We argue in this thesis that the lack of compelling evidence derives from incorrectly drawn expectations about this precise relationship. By and large, previous scholars claim that bad economic conjunctures drive voters to support new political parties. This seems not always to be the case, however, as voters can punish incumbents for poor economic performance by supporting opposition parties instead. As such, we argue that new parties only benefit from bad economic conditions if voters are discontented with the existing parties as a whole. We tested this hypothesis drawing on a unique dataset that comprises all elections to the national legislatures in west European countries of the European Union, from 1986 to 2015. Statistical evidence appears to corroborate the aforementioned claim. Unfavorable economic conjunctures benefit new entrants if there is a large pool of discontented individuals. On the other hand, poor economic performance appears to slightly hamper their electoral success if voters are fairly satisfied with the existing parties.As condições económicas afectam o sucesso de novos partidos? Embora esta questão seja basilar para a Ciência Política, os estudos existentes não dispõem de evidência empírica concreta que corrobore uma relação entre os dois fenómenos. Nesta tese argumentamos que as expectativas teóricas destes estudos podem explicar, pelo menos parcialmente, estes resultados inconsistentes. Os estudos anteriores consideram em grosso modo que as más conjunturas económicas incentivam os eleitores a votar em novos partidos políticos. Estes eleitores podem, contudo, punir os incumbentes pelo mau desempenho económico apoiando os partidos da oposição. Deste modo, consideramos que as novas formações partidárias só beneficiam das más condições económicas quando os eleitores estão descontentes com todas as alternativas partidárias existentes, inclusive partidos de oposição. Esta hipótese foi testada com base em testes estatísticos em 135 eleições para os parlamentos nacionais dos países da Europa ocidental membros da União Europeia entre 1986 e 2015. Os resultados corroboram a hipótese anterior. Os períodos económicos mais desfavoráveis são benéficos para as novas formações partidárias caso haja um grande número de eleitores descontentes com as opções partidárias existentes. Por outro lado, o mau desempenho económico constrange, ainda que a um grau mais limitado, o sucesso eleitoral dos novos partidos quando os eleitores estão relativamente satisfeitos com os partidos estabelecidos.Universidade de Aveiro2018-05-03T10:33:12Z2017-01-01T00:00:00Z2017info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10773/23037TID:201940922engFernandes, Daniel Alvesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-22T11:44:57Zoai:ria.ua.pt:10773/23037Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:56:58.152939Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The economy and new political parties
title The economy and new political parties
spellingShingle The economy and new political parties
Fernandes, Daniel Alves
Partidos políticos
União Europeia - 1986-2015
Condições económicas
Economia de mercado
title_short The economy and new political parties
title_full The economy and new political parties
title_fullStr The economy and new political parties
title_full_unstemmed The economy and new political parties
title_sort The economy and new political parties
author Fernandes, Daniel Alves
author_facet Fernandes, Daniel Alves
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Fernandes, Daniel Alves
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Partidos políticos
União Europeia - 1986-2015
Condições económicas
Economia de mercado
topic Partidos políticos
União Europeia - 1986-2015
Condições económicas
Economia de mercado
description Does the economy affect the electoral success of new political parties? Despite the profound scholarly interest on this subject, previous studies have not found consistent empirical evidence linking economic conditions to new party success. We argue in this thesis that the lack of compelling evidence derives from incorrectly drawn expectations about this precise relationship. By and large, previous scholars claim that bad economic conjunctures drive voters to support new political parties. This seems not always to be the case, however, as voters can punish incumbents for poor economic performance by supporting opposition parties instead. As such, we argue that new parties only benefit from bad economic conditions if voters are discontented with the existing parties as a whole. We tested this hypothesis drawing on a unique dataset that comprises all elections to the national legislatures in west European countries of the European Union, from 1986 to 2015. Statistical evidence appears to corroborate the aforementioned claim. Unfavorable economic conjunctures benefit new entrants if there is a large pool of discontented individuals. On the other hand, poor economic performance appears to slightly hamper their electoral success if voters are fairly satisfied with the existing parties.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z
2017
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