The strategic strength of weak signal analysis
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328711002564 https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/public/pub/id/9537 http://hdl.handle.net/10071/7050 |
Resumo: | Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, "weak signals" can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process. |
id |
RCAP_5cae3ad2835fba4e8761c5fb2bf93ef8 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/7050 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysisForesight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, "weak signals" can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.Elsevier2014-05-02T15:07:37Z2012-01-01T00:00:00Z20122014-05-02T15:04:28Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328711002564https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/public/pub/id/9537http://hdl.handle.net/10071/7050eng0016-3287Mendonça, S.Cardoso, G.Caraça, J.info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:34:27Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/7050Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:15:34.399194Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
title |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
spellingShingle |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis Mendonça, S. |
title_short |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
title_full |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
title_fullStr |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
title_sort |
The strategic strength of weak signal analysis |
author |
Mendonça, S. |
author_facet |
Mendonça, S. Cardoso, G. Caraça, J. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cardoso, G. Caraça, J. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Mendonça, S. Cardoso, G. Caraça, J. |
description |
Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, "weak signals" can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z 2012 2014-05-02T15:07:37Z 2014-05-02T15:04:28Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328711002564 https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/public/pub/id/9537 http://hdl.handle.net/10071/7050 |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328711002564 https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/public/pub/id/9537 http://hdl.handle.net/10071/7050 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0016-3287 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
embargoedAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799134713581928448 |