The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Tomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereira
Data de Publicação: 2013
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/8018
Resumo: The 2008 economic downturn triggered significant fluctuations in several scopes, namely in the automotive industry. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the influence of the current crisis on the sale price of second hand vehicles. A linear regression model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares procedure, based on a sample of used cars sold in Portugal, since 2005 to 2012. Macroeconomic variables such as Unemployment Rate, Oil Prices, Loans granted to Private Individuals, Private Consumption Indicator, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, among others, were tested in the estimated regression. In addition, some variables representing the own vehicle characteristics were also included. Finally, an out-of-sample analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive ability of the linear regression model. Results suggested that some of the selected macroeconomic indicators actually influence the sale price of an automobile sold in the secondary market and due to its predicting capacity can be useful to pricing procedures or just for asset valuation.
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spelling The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale priceCar sale priceUsed cars marketAutomobile industryMacroeconomic variablesPreço de venda do carroMercado de carros usadosIndústria automóvelVariáveis macroeconómicasThe 2008 economic downturn triggered significant fluctuations in several scopes, namely in the automotive industry. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the influence of the current crisis on the sale price of second hand vehicles. A linear regression model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares procedure, based on a sample of used cars sold in Portugal, since 2005 to 2012. Macroeconomic variables such as Unemployment Rate, Oil Prices, Loans granted to Private Individuals, Private Consumption Indicator, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, among others, were tested in the estimated regression. In addition, some variables representing the own vehicle characteristics were also included. Finally, an out-of-sample analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive ability of the linear regression model. Results suggested that some of the selected macroeconomic indicators actually influence the sale price of an automobile sold in the secondary market and due to its predicting capacity can be useful to pricing procedures or just for asset valuation.A recessão económica de 2008 desencadeou flutuações relevantes em diversos âmbitos, nomeadamente na indústria automóvel. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a influência da atual crise no preço de venda dos carros em segunda mão. Para tal, foi estimada uma regressão linear, recorrendo ao método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, com base numa amostra de carros usados vendidos em Portugal, entre 2005 e 2012. Variáveis macroeconómicas tais como a Taxa de Desemprego, o Preço do Petróleo, os Empréstimos concedidos a Particulares, o Indicador do Consumo Privado, o Índice Harmonizado de Preços no Consumidor, entre outras, foram testadas na regressão. Para além destas, foram incluídas variáveis que representam as próprias características do veículo. Por fim, foi realizada uma análise out-of-sample para testar a validade do modelo de regressão linear. Os resultados revelaram que algumas das variáveis escolhidas têm, de facto, impacto no preço de um automóvel vendido no mercado secundário e que, devido à sua capacidade preditiva, podem ser úteis para procedimentos de pricing ou apenas para avaliação de ativos.2014-12-03T14:33:32Z2013-01-01T00:00:00Z20132013-10info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfapplication/octet-streamhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/8018TID:201036282porTomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereirainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:45:32Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/8018Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:21:46.491629Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
title The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
spellingShingle The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
Tomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereira
Car sale price
Used cars market
Automobile industry
Macroeconomic variables
Preço de venda do carro
Mercado de carros usados
Indústria automóvel
Variáveis macroeconómicas
title_short The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
title_full The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
title_fullStr The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
title_full_unstemmed The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
title_sort The impact of macroeconomic variables on the used cars sale price
author Tomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereira
author_facet Tomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereira
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Tomé, Ana Catarina Laureano Pereira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Car sale price
Used cars market
Automobile industry
Macroeconomic variables
Preço de venda do carro
Mercado de carros usados
Indústria automóvel
Variáveis macroeconómicas
topic Car sale price
Used cars market
Automobile industry
Macroeconomic variables
Preço de venda do carro
Mercado de carros usados
Indústria automóvel
Variáveis macroeconómicas
description The 2008 economic downturn triggered significant fluctuations in several scopes, namely in the automotive industry. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the influence of the current crisis on the sale price of second hand vehicles. A linear regression model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares procedure, based on a sample of used cars sold in Portugal, since 2005 to 2012. Macroeconomic variables such as Unemployment Rate, Oil Prices, Loans granted to Private Individuals, Private Consumption Indicator, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, among others, were tested in the estimated regression. In addition, some variables representing the own vehicle characteristics were also included. Finally, an out-of-sample analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive ability of the linear regression model. Results suggested that some of the selected macroeconomic indicators actually influence the sale price of an automobile sold in the secondary market and due to its predicting capacity can be useful to pricing procedures or just for asset valuation.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z
2013
2013-10
2014-12-03T14:33:32Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10071/8018
TID:201036282
url http://hdl.handle.net/10071/8018
identifier_str_mv TID:201036282
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instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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