Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bravo, Jorge M.
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Ayuso, Mercedes
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129531
Resumo: Bravo, J. M., & Ayuso, M. (2021). Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging. Mathematics, 9(24), 1-27. [3307]. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9243307 --------------------------------------------------- Funding: This research was funded by Portuguese national science funds through FCT under the grant UIDB/04152/2020—Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) (J.M. Bravo), by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GBC21 (M. Ayuso) and by Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del departament d’Empresa i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya for funding received under grant 2020-PANDE-00074.
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spelling Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model AveragingSustainability factorRetirement ageBayesian Model AveragingPensionsLife expectancyMortality forecastingRedistributionPolicymaking under uncertaintyMathematics(all)SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingBravo, J. M., & Ayuso, M. (2021). Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging. Mathematics, 9(24), 1-27. [3307]. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9243307 --------------------------------------------------- Funding: This research was funded by Portuguese national science funds through FCT under the grant UIDB/04152/2020—Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) (J.M. Bravo), by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GBC21 (M. Ayuso) and by Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del departament d’Empresa i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya for funding received under grant 2020-PANDE-00074.Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses to pension schemes and aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but there are other dimensions of welfare restructuring in the politics of pension reforms, including recalibration, rationalization, and blame avoidance for unpopular policies that involve retrenchments. This paper examines the policy designs and implications of linking entry pensions to life expectancy developments through sustainability factors or life expectancy coefficients in Finland, Portugal, and Spain. To address conceptual and specification uncertainty in policymaking, we propose and apply a Bayesian model averaging approach to stochastic mortality modeling and life expectancy computation. The results show that: (i) sustainability factors will generate substantial pension entitlement reductions in the three countries analyzed; (ii) the magnitude of the pension losses depends on the factor design; (iii) to offset pension cuts and safeguard pension adequacy, individuals will have to prolong their working lives significantly; (iv) factor designs considering cohort longevity markers would have generated higher pension cuts in countries with increasing life expectancy gap.Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management SchoolNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNBravo, Jorge M.Ayuso, Mercedes2021-12-20T23:17:51Z2021-12-192021-12-19T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article27application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/129531eng2227-7390PURE: 35479526https://doi.org/10.3390/math9243307info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:08:37Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/129531Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:46:33.546118Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
title Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
spellingShingle Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
Bravo, Jorge M.
Sustainability factor
Retirement age
Bayesian Model Averaging
Pensions
Life expectancy
Mortality forecasting
Redistribution
Policymaking under uncertainty
Mathematics(all)
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
title_short Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
title_full Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
title_fullStr Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
title_full_unstemmed Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
title_sort Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
author Bravo, Jorge M.
author_facet Bravo, Jorge M.
Ayuso, Mercedes
author_role author
author2 Ayuso, Mercedes
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bravo, Jorge M.
Ayuso, Mercedes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Sustainability factor
Retirement age
Bayesian Model Averaging
Pensions
Life expectancy
Mortality forecasting
Redistribution
Policymaking under uncertainty
Mathematics(all)
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
topic Sustainability factor
Retirement age
Bayesian Model Averaging
Pensions
Life expectancy
Mortality forecasting
Redistribution
Policymaking under uncertainty
Mathematics(all)
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
description Bravo, J. M., & Ayuso, M. (2021). Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging. Mathematics, 9(24), 1-27. [3307]. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9243307 --------------------------------------------------- Funding: This research was funded by Portuguese national science funds through FCT under the grant UIDB/04152/2020—Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) (J.M. Bravo), by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GBC21 (M. Ayuso) and by Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del departament d’Empresa i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya for funding received under grant 2020-PANDE-00074.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-12-20T23:17:51Z
2021-12-19
2021-12-19T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129531
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129531
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2227-7390
PURE: 35479526
https://doi.org/10.3390/math9243307
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 27
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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