The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/41158 |
Resumo: | This paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry's aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact. |
id |
RCAP_68e832fef7a06663ad4659475c35f0b7 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/41158 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from PortugalCash-flow at riskCovid-19Hotel industryMonte Carlo simulationThis paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry's aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact.Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaSantos, Mário Coutinho dosMagano, JoséMota, Jorge2023-05-17T13:48:16Z2023-052023-05-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/41158eng2405-844010.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e1585085156223782PMC1015405637153421001042289200001info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-22T01:30:34Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/41158Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:33:49.862912Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
title |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
spellingShingle |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Cash-flow at risk Covid-19 Hotel industry Monte Carlo simulation |
title_short |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
title_full |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
title_fullStr |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
title_sort |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel industry's economic performance: evidence from Portugal |
author |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cash-flow at risk Covid-19 Hotel industry Monte Carlo simulation |
topic |
Cash-flow at risk Covid-19 Hotel industry Monte Carlo simulation |
description |
This paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry's aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-05-17T13:48:16Z 2023-05 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/41158 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/41158 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2405-8440 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15850 85156223782 PMC10154056 37153421 001042289200001 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799132064524533760 |