Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Kawsar, Riazuddin
Data de Publicação: 2013
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9189
Resumo: Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.
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spelling Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern AfricaArmed ConflictClimate ChangeSpatial Point Pattern analysisSpatial distribution patternSpatio-temporal modellingSpatial Autoregressive modelClimate conflict relationshipDissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.Despite recent methodological improvements and higher data availability, the Climate Change (CC) and Armed Conflict (AC) studies are suffering from poor data and inappropriate research designs (e.g., Incompatibilities of scale). This study fills the gaps by taking the climate conflict analyses into a different scale (e.g., 55 km x 55 km sub-national cell/year) and uses high resolution Geo-referenced data sets. This study presents the results from 10 years (1991-2000) of observations and a rigorous modelling methodology to understand the effects of climate change on the conflict occurrence in the Eastern Africa. The main objective of the study is to identify and understand the conflict dynamics, verify the pattern of conflict distribution, possible interaction between the conflict sites and the influence of climatic covariates of conflict outbreak. We have found that if the climate related anomaly increases, the probability of armed conflict outbreak also increases significantly. To identify the effect of climate change on armed conflict we have modeled the relationship between them, using different kinds of point process models and Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) Lag models for both spatial and spatio-temporal cases. In modelling, we have introduced one new climate indicator, termed as Weighted Anomaly Soil Water Index (WASWI), which is a dimensionless measure of the relative severity of soil water containment indicating in the form of surplus or deficit. In all the models the coefficients of WASWI were found negative and to be significant, predicting armed conflict at 0.05 level of significance for the whole period. The conflicts were found to be clustered up to 200 kilometers and the local level negative relationship between conflict and climate suggests that change in WASWI impacts changes in AC by - 0.1981 or -0.1657. We have also found that the conflict in the own cell associated to a ( app. 0.7) increase in the probability of conflict occurances in the neighbouring cell and also to a (app. 0.6) increase of the following years (spatio-temporal). So, climate change indicators are a vital predictor of armed conflict and provides a proper predictive framework for conflict expectation. This study also provides a sound methodological framework for climate conflict research which encompasses two big approaches, point process modelling and lattice approach with careful modelling of spatial dependence, spatial and sptio-temporal autocorrelation, etc.Pebesma, EdzerMateu Mahiques, JorgeCabral, Pedro da Costa BritoCaetano, Mário Sílvio Rochinha de AndradeRUNKawsar, Riazuddin2013-03-25T12:45:52Z2013-01-302013-01-30T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/9189TID:202252981enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T03:42:05Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/9189Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:18:36.395188Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
title Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
spellingShingle Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
Kawsar, Riazuddin
Armed Conflict
Climate Change
Spatial Point Pattern analysis
Spatial distribution pattern
Spatio-temporal modelling
Spatial Autoregressive model
Climate conflict relationship
title_short Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
title_full Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
title_fullStr Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
title_full_unstemmed Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
title_sort Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa
author Kawsar, Riazuddin
author_facet Kawsar, Riazuddin
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Pebesma, Edzer
Mateu Mahiques, Jorge
Cabral, Pedro da Costa Brito
Caetano, Mário Sílvio Rochinha de Andrade
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Kawsar, Riazuddin
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Armed Conflict
Climate Change
Spatial Point Pattern analysis
Spatial distribution pattern
Spatio-temporal modelling
Spatial Autoregressive model
Climate conflict relationship
topic Armed Conflict
Climate Change
Spatial Point Pattern analysis
Spatial distribution pattern
Spatio-temporal modelling
Spatial Autoregressive model
Climate conflict relationship
description Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-03-25T12:45:52Z
2013-01-30
2013-01-30T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9189
TID:202252981
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9189
identifier_str_mv TID:202252981
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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