Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
| Outros Autores: | , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/151195 |
Resumo: | Funding Information: This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia ( FCT ), Portugal; and Qart - Soluções de Monitorização e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE /BDE/120452/2016]. Funding Information: Both older and more recent scientific literature seem to support many of these signals and thus better fit in GATO IV index. Something already described with some regularity, namely by WHO, is the relationship between temperature and mortality that is often non-linear (V-shaped, U-shaped or J-shaped) (WHO, 2004; Breitner et al., 2014). The two indices, having dynamic thresholds, also define a non-linear form of the relationship between temperature and mortality, but GATO IV has the advantage of making this measurement on a shorter time scale.This work was supported by the Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal; and Qart - Solu??es de Monitoriza??o e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE/BDE/120452/2016]. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Authors |
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Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heatEHF or GATO IV? Evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016EHFGATO IVHeat healthHeatwavesPublic healthSurveillance systemGeography, Planning and DevelopmentAtmospheric ScienceManagement, Monitoring, Policy and LawSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingFunding Information: This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia ( FCT ), Portugal; and Qart - Soluções de Monitorização e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE /BDE/120452/2016]. Funding Information: Both older and more recent scientific literature seem to support many of these signals and thus better fit in GATO IV index. Something already described with some regularity, namely by WHO, is the relationship between temperature and mortality that is often non-linear (V-shaped, U-shaped or J-shaped) (WHO, 2004; Breitner et al., 2014). The two indices, having dynamic thresholds, also define a non-linear form of the relationship between temperature and mortality, but GATO IV has the advantage of making this measurement on a shorter time scale.This work was supported by the Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal; and Qart - Solu??es de Monitoriza??o e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE/BDE/120452/2016]. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The AuthorsTo prevent the risk associated with heat-related health, several countries and institutions have built heat-health warning systems (HHWS). An HHWS is designed to alert the general public and decision-makers about the danger of high temperature by triggering a series of actions that avoid adverse health outcomes. The comparison of the various HHWS is complicated because there is no universal quantitative definition to predict and define a heatwave. The slightest variability at the threshold of definition the heatwave can trigger considerable differences in the action plan, health service demand and the time the population at risk must prepare. The choice of the index influences the number of days of heatwaves and its characteristics, such as severity. Estimating the risk of mortality associated with heatwave is variable according to the indexes, and the selection of the threshold is essential to prevent the burdens of heat on public health. The aim is the comparison between two metrics to know, which has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat. On the one hand, a new way of defining heatwaves that have generated high consensus worldwide - the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); on the other hand, the Generalized Accumulated Thermal Overload (GATO IV) – an opportunity to improve the existing Lisbon heatwaves surveillance system. Daily mortalities and air temperatures from 1980 to 2016 in Lisbon with both indexes are modelled using Generalized Linear Models, with the calculation of the predictive power of the models using ROC curves for two levels of mortality severity. It is concluded that for total mortality, both indexes were statistically significant. Though, for daily mortality in individuals with 65 years or older with all diseases of the circulatory and respiratory system, when considering both indexes together, GATO IV was the only index significantly predicting the impact of heatwaves on mortality. GATO IV metric seems to have the best statistical properties. Nevertheless, EHF also stands out as a good indicator to predict heat-related mortality in Lisbon.Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)RUNMorais, LilianeLopes, AntónioNogueira, Paulo2023-03-24T22:24:05Z2020-122020-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/151195eng2212-0947PURE: 56843361https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100287info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:33:39Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/151195Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:54:29.978271Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat EHF or GATO IV? Evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
| title |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| spellingShingle |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat Morais, Liliane EHF GATO IV Heat health Heatwaves Public health Surveillance system Geography, Planning and Development Atmospheric Science Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| title_short |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| title_full |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| title_fullStr |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| title_sort |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat |
| author |
Morais, Liliane |
| author_facet |
Morais, Liliane Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo |
| author2_role |
author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC) RUN |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Morais, Liliane Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
EHF GATO IV Heat health Heatwaves Public health Surveillance system Geography, Planning and Development Atmospheric Science Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| topic |
EHF GATO IV Heat health Heatwaves Public health Surveillance system Geography, Planning and Development Atmospheric Science Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
| description |
Funding Information: This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia ( FCT ), Portugal; and Qart - Soluções de Monitorização e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE /BDE/120452/2016]. Funding Information: Both older and more recent scientific literature seem to support many of these signals and thus better fit in GATO IV index. Something already described with some regularity, namely by WHO, is the relationship between temperature and mortality that is often non-linear (V-shaped, U-shaped or J-shaped) (WHO, 2004; Breitner et al., 2014). The two indices, having dynamic thresholds, also define a non-linear form of the relationship between temperature and mortality, but GATO IV has the advantage of making this measurement on a shorter time scale.This work was supported by the Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal; and Qart - Solu??es de Monitoriza??o e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE/BDE/120452/2016]. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Authors |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z 2023-03-24T22:24:05Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10362/151195 |
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eng |
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eng |
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2212-0947 PURE: 56843361 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100287 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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