Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Morais, Liliane
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Lopes, António, Nogueira, Paulo Jorge
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972
Resumo: © 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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spelling Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016GATO IVEHFPublic healthHeatwavesHeat healthSurveillance system© 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).To prevent the risk associated with heat-related health, several countries and institutions have built heat-health warning systems (HHWS). An HHWS is designed to alert the general public and decision-makers about the danger of high temperature by triggering a series of actions that avoid adverse health outcomes. The comparison of the various HHWS is complicated because there is no universal quantitative definition to predict and define a heatwave. The slightest variability at the threshold of definition the heatwave can trigger considerable differences in the action plan, health service demand and the time the population at risk must prepare. The choice of the index influences the number of days of heatwaves and its characteristics, such as severity. Estimating the risk of mortality associated with heatwave is variable according to the indexes, and the selection of the threshold is essential to prevent the burdens of heat on public health. The aim is the comparison between two metrics to know, which has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat. On the one hand, a new way of defining heatwaves that have generated high consensus worldwide - the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); on the other hand, the Generalized Accumulated Thermal Overload (GATO IV) – an opportunity to improve the existing Lisbon heatwaves surveillance system. Daily mortalities and air temperatures from 1980 to 2016 in Lisbon with both indexes are modelled using Generalized Linear Models, with the calculation of the predictive power of the models using ROC curves for two levels of mortality severity. It is concluded that for total mortality, both indexes were statistically significant. Though, for daily mortality in individuals with 65 years or older with all diseases of the circulatory and respiratory system, when considering both indexes together, GATO IV was the only index significantly predicting the impact of heatwaves on mortality. GATO IV metric seems to have the best statistical properties. Nevertheless, EHF also stands out as a good indicator to predict heat-related mortality in Lisbon.This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal; and Qart - Soluções de Monitorizaçãao e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE/BDE/ 120452/2016].ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMorais, LilianeLopes, AntónioNogueira, Paulo Jorge2020-11-24T10:41:09Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972engWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 30, 202010.1016/j.wace.2020.1002872212-0947info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:46:21Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/44972Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:57:27.067570Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
title Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
spellingShingle Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
Morais, Liliane
GATO IV
EHF
Public health
Heatwaves
Heat health
Surveillance system
title_short Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
title_full Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
title_fullStr Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
title_full_unstemmed Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
title_sort Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
author Morais, Liliane
author_facet Morais, Liliane
Lopes, António
Nogueira, Paulo Jorge
author_role author
author2 Lopes, António
Nogueira, Paulo Jorge
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Morais, Liliane
Lopes, António
Nogueira, Paulo Jorge
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv GATO IV
EHF
Public health
Heatwaves
Heat health
Surveillance system
topic GATO IV
EHF
Public health
Heatwaves
Heat health
Surveillance system
description © 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-11-24T10:41:09Z
2020
2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 30, 2020
10.1016/j.wace.2020.100287
2212-0947
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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