A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/25141 |
Resumo: | In this paper, the authors provide an explanation of the abnormal behavior of gold returns between the 1st of January 2008 and the 31st of December 2013. The authors suggest a behavioral finance foundation to the fact that gold returns exceed those of a wide range of other assets over this period. The approach rests on the safe haven (SH) motif for flights to gold during heavy financial stress periods. The prevailing Baur-Lucey-McDermott paradigm on gold as a SH is shown to be insufficient, as it ignores the roles of volatility and risk preferences. The auhors suggest a formal SH definition, recovering those elements from behavioral finance. Contrary to the previous paradigm, the approach is data-consistent, in the sample period. The authors find that gold is a SH for all stock markets considered, some exchange rates, and even Euro Area sovereign bonds (including German bunds). They estimate the SH risk premium in all cases. The authors find that investors perceive the distinction between good and bad volatility, and that they do not ask for excess returns when gold volatility is high for SH reasons. This is consistent with the literature on the low frequency of idiosyncratic shocks in the gold market. Furthermore, the authors find evidence that, in a period of high financial uncertainty, fund managers building portfolios consisting only of gold might be acting rationally, contrary to the finance common sense for normal periods. In fact, in the sample period, gold is even strictly dominant in mean-variance terms, when compared to equity. |
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A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity?Safe havenGoldEuro debt crisisRisk preferencesFund managementIn this paper, the authors provide an explanation of the abnormal behavior of gold returns between the 1st of January 2008 and the 31st of December 2013. The authors suggest a behavioral finance foundation to the fact that gold returns exceed those of a wide range of other assets over this period. The approach rests on the safe haven (SH) motif for flights to gold during heavy financial stress periods. The prevailing Baur-Lucey-McDermott paradigm on gold as a SH is shown to be insufficient, as it ignores the roles of volatility and risk preferences. The auhors suggest a formal SH definition, recovering those elements from behavioral finance. Contrary to the previous paradigm, the approach is data-consistent, in the sample period. The authors find that gold is a SH for all stock markets considered, some exchange rates, and even Euro Area sovereign bonds (including German bunds). They estimate the SH risk premium in all cases. The authors find that investors perceive the distinction between good and bad volatility, and that they do not ask for excess returns when gold volatility is high for SH reasons. This is consistent with the literature on the low frequency of idiosyncratic shocks in the gold market. Furthermore, the authors find evidence that, in a period of high financial uncertainty, fund managers building portfolios consisting only of gold might be acting rationally, contrary to the finance common sense for normal periods. In fact, in the sample period, gold is even strictly dominant in mean-variance terms, when compared to equity.Business PerspectivesVeritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaOliveira, Maria AlbertaSantos, Carlos2018-06-29T12:13:40Z20162016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/25141engOliveira, M. A., Santos, C. (2016). A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity?. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 13(3), 203-2141812-935810.21511/imfi.13(3-1).2016.06info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-12T17:30:30Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/25141Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:20:03.130871Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
title |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
spellingShingle |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? Oliveira, Maria Alberta Safe haven Gold Euro debt crisis Risk preferences Fund management |
title_short |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
title_full |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
title_fullStr |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
title_full_unstemmed |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
title_sort |
A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity? |
author |
Oliveira, Maria Alberta |
author_facet |
Oliveira, Maria Alberta Santos, Carlos |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santos, Carlos |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, Maria Alberta Santos, Carlos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Safe haven Gold Euro debt crisis Risk preferences Fund management |
topic |
Safe haven Gold Euro debt crisis Risk preferences Fund management |
description |
In this paper, the authors provide an explanation of the abnormal behavior of gold returns between the 1st of January 2008 and the 31st of December 2013. The authors suggest a behavioral finance foundation to the fact that gold returns exceed those of a wide range of other assets over this period. The approach rests on the safe haven (SH) motif for flights to gold during heavy financial stress periods. The prevailing Baur-Lucey-McDermott paradigm on gold as a SH is shown to be insufficient, as it ignores the roles of volatility and risk preferences. The auhors suggest a formal SH definition, recovering those elements from behavioral finance. Contrary to the previous paradigm, the approach is data-consistent, in the sample period. The authors find that gold is a SH for all stock markets considered, some exchange rates, and even Euro Area sovereign bonds (including German bunds). They estimate the SH risk premium in all cases. The authors find that investors perceive the distinction between good and bad volatility, and that they do not ask for excess returns when gold volatility is high for SH reasons. This is consistent with the literature on the low frequency of idiosyncratic shocks in the gold market. Furthermore, the authors find evidence that, in a period of high financial uncertainty, fund managers building portfolios consisting only of gold might be acting rationally, contrary to the finance common sense for normal periods. In fact, in the sample period, gold is even strictly dominant in mean-variance terms, when compared to equity. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z 2018-06-29T12:13:40Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/25141 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/25141 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, M. A., Santos, C. (2016). A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity?. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 13(3), 203-214 1812-9358 10.21511/imfi.13(3-1).2016.06 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Business Perspectives |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Business Perspectives |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131896740839424 |