Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Brutschin, Elina
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Schenuit, Felix, van Ruijven, Bas, Riahi, Keywan
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535
Resumo: To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and decreasing coal consumption are more inclined to phase out coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal power plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to domestic mitigation capacities and, alongside this—given the vested interests involved in different sectors—to state capacity to implement the transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization. In this article, we aim to study those capacities in the context of coal phaseout. We use a recent and comprehensive global dataset on coal power plants and employ a mixed-methods research design to (a) identify general emerging patterns with respect to premature coal fleet retirement, and (b) derive stylized types of political strategies to prematurely retire coal power plants. We find state capacity to be a robust predictor of general and premature coal retirement, and we identify three main strategies that countries have used to date to prematurely retire coal: (a) rein-in using top-down regulatory enforcement of environmental, climate, or other regulations that affect the operating licenses of coal plants; (b) buy-out or provision of compensation to companies and regions to appease vested interests; and (c) crowd out where accelerating market and price dynamics in the power sector crowd out coal. We propose that future research should explore more systematically the kinds of strategy that might be most promising in the regions and countries needing to rapidly phase out coal, taking into account their political structures, and also the implications that such strategies might have for global mitigation efforts.
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spelling Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseoutclimate mitigation; coal phaseout; premature coal retirement; strategic state capacityTo reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and decreasing coal consumption are more inclined to phase out coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal power plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to domestic mitigation capacities and, alongside this—given the vested interests involved in different sectors—to state capacity to implement the transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization. In this article, we aim to study those capacities in the context of coal phaseout. We use a recent and comprehensive global dataset on coal power plants and employ a mixed-methods research design to (a) identify general emerging patterns with respect to premature coal fleet retirement, and (b) derive stylized types of political strategies to prematurely retire coal power plants. We find state capacity to be a robust predictor of general and premature coal retirement, and we identify three main strategies that countries have used to date to prematurely retire coal: (a) rein-in using top-down regulatory enforcement of environmental, climate, or other regulations that affect the operating licenses of coal plants; (b) buy-out or provision of compensation to companies and regions to appease vested interests; and (c) crowd out where accelerating market and price dynamics in the power sector crowd out coal. We propose that future research should explore more systematically the kinds of strategy that might be most promising in the regions and countries needing to rapidly phase out coal, taking into account their political structures, and also the implications that such strategies might have for global mitigation efforts.Cogitatio2022-09-21info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5535Politics and Governance; Vol 10, No 3 (2022): Exploring Climate Policy Ambition; 200-2122183-2463reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5535https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5535/5535https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/5535/2790info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCopyright (c) 2022 Elina Brutschin, Felix Schenuit, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Brutschin, ElinaSchenuit, Felixvan Ruijven, BasRiahi, Keywan2022-10-21T16:03:04Zoai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5535Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:13:45.164652Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
title Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
spellingShingle Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
Brutschin, Elina
climate mitigation; coal phaseout; premature coal retirement; strategic state capacity
title_short Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
title_full Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
title_fullStr Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
title_full_unstemmed Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
title_sort Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
author Brutschin, Elina
author_facet Brutschin, Elina
Schenuit, Felix
van Ruijven, Bas
Riahi, Keywan
author_role author
author2 Schenuit, Felix
van Ruijven, Bas
Riahi, Keywan
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Brutschin, Elina
Schenuit, Felix
van Ruijven, Bas
Riahi, Keywan
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv climate mitigation; coal phaseout; premature coal retirement; strategic state capacity
topic climate mitigation; coal phaseout; premature coal retirement; strategic state capacity
description To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and decreasing coal consumption are more inclined to phase out coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal power plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to domestic mitigation capacities and, alongside this—given the vested interests involved in different sectors—to state capacity to implement the transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization. In this article, we aim to study those capacities in the context of coal phaseout. We use a recent and comprehensive global dataset on coal power plants and employ a mixed-methods research design to (a) identify general emerging patterns with respect to premature coal fleet retirement, and (b) derive stylized types of political strategies to prematurely retire coal power plants. We find state capacity to be a robust predictor of general and premature coal retirement, and we identify three main strategies that countries have used to date to prematurely retire coal: (a) rein-in using top-down regulatory enforcement of environmental, climate, or other regulations that affect the operating licenses of coal plants; (b) buy-out or provision of compensation to companies and regions to appease vested interests; and (c) crowd out where accelerating market and price dynamics in the power sector crowd out coal. We propose that future research should explore more systematically the kinds of strategy that might be most promising in the regions and countries needing to rapidly phase out coal, taking into account their political structures, and also the implications that such strategies might have for global mitigation efforts.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-09-21
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535
oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5535
url https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535
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dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5535
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535
https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5535/5535
https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/5535/2790
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Copyright (c) 2022 Elina Brutschin, Felix Schenuit, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2022 Elina Brutschin, Felix Schenuit, Bas van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cogitatio
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cogitatio
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Politics and Governance; Vol 10, No 3 (2022): Exploring Climate Policy Ambition; 200-212
2183-2463
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