The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Sousa, Ricardo M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966
Resumo: With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.
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spelling The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysisB-SVARFully simultaneous systemFiscal policyDebt dynamicsPortugalSocial SciencesWith a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)SpringerUniversidade do MinhoAfonso, AntónioSousa, Ricardo M.20112011-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966eng"Portuguese Economic Journal". ISSN 1617-982X . 10:1 (2011) 61-82.1617-982X10.1007/s10258-011-0071-2http://www.springerlink.com/content/d4757m545j73150k/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:13:03Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/11966Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:05:04.564163Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
title The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
spellingShingle The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
Afonso, António
B-SVAR
Fully simultaneous system
Fiscal policy
Debt dynamics
Portugal
Social Sciences
title_short The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
title_full The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
title_fullStr The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
title_full_unstemmed The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
title_sort The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
author Afonso, António
author_facet Afonso, António
Sousa, Ricardo M.
author_role author
author2 Sousa, Ricardo M.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Afonso, António
Sousa, Ricardo M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv B-SVAR
Fully simultaneous system
Fiscal policy
Debt dynamics
Portugal
Social Sciences
topic B-SVAR
Fully simultaneous system
Fiscal policy
Debt dynamics
Portugal
Social Sciences
description With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011
2011-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv "Portuguese Economic Journal". ISSN 1617-982X . 10:1 (2011) 61-82.
1617-982X
10.1007/s10258-011-0071-2
http://www.springerlink.com/content/d4757m545j73150k/
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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