The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2011 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
Resumo: | With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects. |
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The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysisB-SVARFully simultaneous systemFiscal policyDebt dynamicsPortugalSocial SciencesWith a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)SpringerUniversidade do MinhoAfonso, AntónioSousa, Ricardo M.20112011-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966eng"Portuguese Economic Journal". ISSN 1617-982X . 10:1 (2011) 61-82.1617-982X10.1007/s10258-011-0071-2http://www.springerlink.com/content/d4757m545j73150k/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:13:03Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/11966Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:05:04.564163Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
title |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
spellingShingle |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis Afonso, António B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal Social Sciences |
title_short |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
title_full |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
title_fullStr |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
title_sort |
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sousa, Ricardo M. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal Social Sciences |
topic |
B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal Social Sciences |
description |
With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects. |
publishDate |
2011 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2011 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
"Portuguese Economic Journal". ISSN 1617-982X . 10:1 (2011) 61-82. 1617-982X 10.1007/s10258-011-0071-2 http://www.springerlink.com/content/d4757m545j73150k/ |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799132461801668608 |