The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Mendes, Jorge M.
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Coelho, Pedro S.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154763
Resumo: Mendes, J. M., & Coelho, P. S. (2023). The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(3), 742-768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009. Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) under the project UIDB/04152/2020 - Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC)
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spelling The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomesA heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR modelHealth PolicyInfectious DiseasesApplied MathematicsSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingMendes, J. M., & Coelho, P. S. (2023). The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(3), 742-768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009. Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) under the project UIDB/04152/2020 - Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC)Successive generalisations of the basic SEIR model have been proposed to accommodate the different needs of the organisations handling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the assessment of the public health measures adopted and named under the common umbrella of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). So far, these generalisations have not been able to assess the ability of these measures to avoid infection by the SARS-CoV-2 and thus their contribution to contain the spread of the disease. This work proposes a new generalisation of SEIR model and includes a heterogeneous and age-related generation of infections that depends both on a probability that a contact generates the transmission of the disease and a contact rate. The results show (1) thanks to the universal wearing of facial coverings, the probability that a contact provokes the transmission of the disease was reduced by at least 50% and (2) the impact of the other NPI is so significant that otherwise Portugal would have gone into a non-sustainable situation of having 80% of its population infected in the first 300 days of the pandemic. This situation would have led to a number of deaths almost twenty times higher than the number that was actually recorded by December 26th, 2020. Moreover, the results suggest that even if the requirement of universal wearing of facial coverings was adopted sooner jointly with closing workplaces and resorting to teleworking would have postponed the peak of the incidence, altought the epidemic path would have result in a number of infections hardly managed by the National Health System. Complementary, results confirm that (3) the health authorities adopted a conservative approach on the criteria to consider an infected individual not infective any longer; and (4) the most effective NPIs and stringency levels either impacting on self-protection against infection or reducing the contacts that would eventually result in infection are, in decreasing order of importance, the use of Facial coverings, Workplace closing and Stay at home requirements.Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management SchoolNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNMendes, Jorge M.Coelho, Pedro S.2023-07-03T22:15:15Z2023-09-012023-09-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article55application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/154763eng2468-0427PURE: 64714379https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:37:11Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/154763Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:55:44.320434Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model
title The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
spellingShingle The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
Mendes, Jorge M.
Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
title_short The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
title_full The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
title_fullStr The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
title_full_unstemmed The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
title_sort The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes
author Mendes, Jorge M.
author_facet Mendes, Jorge M.
Coelho, Pedro S.
author_role author
author2 Coelho, Pedro S.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Mendes, Jorge M.
Coelho, Pedro S.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
topic Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
description Mendes, J. M., & Coelho, P. S. (2023). The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(3), 742-768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009. Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) under the project UIDB/04152/2020 - Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC)
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-03T22:15:15Z
2023-09-01
2023-09-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154763
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154763
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2468-0427
PURE: 64714379
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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