Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lee, JY
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Kim, H, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B, Bell, ML, Sera, F, Lavigne, E, Abrutzky, R, Tong, S, Coelho, MSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Garcia, SO, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, NRI, Pascal, M, Goodman, PG, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, Scortichini, M, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Hurtado, M, Cruz, J, Seposo, X, Nunes, B, Teixeira, JP, Tobias, A, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Åström, C, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YL, Chen, BY, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Dang, TN, Do Van, D, Mayvaneh, F, Overcenco, A, Li, S, Guo, Y
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107
Resumo: An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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spelling Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variabilityAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.Elsevier20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107eng0160-412010.1016/j.envint.2019.105027Lee, JYKim, HGasparrini, AArmstrong, BBell, MLSera, FLavigne, EAbrutzky, RTong, SCoelho, MSZSSaldiva, PHNCorrea, PMOrtega, NVKan, HGarcia, SOKyselý, JUrban, AOrru, HIndermitte, EJaakkola, JJKRyti, NRIPascal, MGoodman, PGZeka, AMichelozzi, PScortichini, MHashizume, MHonda, YHurtado, MCruz, JSeposo, XNunes, BTeixeira, JPTobias, AÍñiguez, CForsberg, BÅström, CVicedo-Cabrera, AMRagettli, MSGuo, YLChen, BYZanobetti, ASchwartz, JDang, TNDo Van, DMayvaneh, FOvercenco, ALi, SGuo, Yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-29T15:16:36Zoai:repositorio-aberto.up.pt:10216/154107Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:19:32.142367Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
title Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
spellingShingle Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
Lee, JY
title_short Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
title_full Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
title_fullStr Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
title_full_unstemmed Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
title_sort Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
author Lee, JY
author_facet Lee, JY
Kim, H
Gasparrini, A
Armstrong, B
Bell, ML
Sera, F
Lavigne, E
Abrutzky, R
Tong, S
Coelho, MSZS
Saldiva, PHN
Correa, PM
Ortega, NV
Kan, H
Garcia, SO
Kyselý, J
Urban, A
Orru, H
Indermitte, E
Jaakkola, JJK
Ryti, NRI
Pascal, M
Goodman, PG
Zeka, A
Michelozzi, P
Scortichini, M
Hashizume, M
Honda, Y
Hurtado, M
Cruz, J
Seposo, X
Nunes, B
Teixeira, JP
Tobias, A
Íñiguez, C
Forsberg, B
Åström, C
Vicedo-Cabrera, AM
Ragettli, MS
Guo, YL
Chen, BY
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
Dang, TN
Do Van, D
Mayvaneh, F
Overcenco, A
Li, S
Guo, Y
author_role author
author2 Kim, H
Gasparrini, A
Armstrong, B
Bell, ML
Sera, F
Lavigne, E
Abrutzky, R
Tong, S
Coelho, MSZS
Saldiva, PHN
Correa, PM
Ortega, NV
Kan, H
Garcia, SO
Kyselý, J
Urban, A
Orru, H
Indermitte, E
Jaakkola, JJK
Ryti, NRI
Pascal, M
Goodman, PG
Zeka, A
Michelozzi, P
Scortichini, M
Hashizume, M
Honda, Y
Hurtado, M
Cruz, J
Seposo, X
Nunes, B
Teixeira, JP
Tobias, A
Íñiguez, C
Forsberg, B
Åström, C
Vicedo-Cabrera, AM
Ragettli, MS
Guo, YL
Chen, BY
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
Dang, TN
Do Van, D
Mayvaneh, F
Overcenco, A
Li, S
Guo, Y
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
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author
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author
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author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lee, JY
Kim, H
Gasparrini, A
Armstrong, B
Bell, ML
Sera, F
Lavigne, E
Abrutzky, R
Tong, S
Coelho, MSZS
Saldiva, PHN
Correa, PM
Ortega, NV
Kan, H
Garcia, SO
Kyselý, J
Urban, A
Orru, H
Indermitte, E
Jaakkola, JJK
Ryti, NRI
Pascal, M
Goodman, PG
Zeka, A
Michelozzi, P
Scortichini, M
Hashizume, M
Honda, Y
Hurtado, M
Cruz, J
Seposo, X
Nunes, B
Teixeira, JP
Tobias, A
Íñiguez, C
Forsberg, B
Åström, C
Vicedo-Cabrera, AM
Ragettli, MS
Guo, YL
Chen, BY
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
Dang, TN
Do Van, D
Mayvaneh, F
Overcenco, A
Li, S
Guo, Y
description An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107
url https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 0160-4120
10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
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