Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107 |
Resumo: | An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. |
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variabilityAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.Elsevier20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107eng0160-412010.1016/j.envint.2019.105027Lee, JYKim, HGasparrini, AArmstrong, BBell, MLSera, FLavigne, EAbrutzky, RTong, SCoelho, MSZSSaldiva, PHNCorrea, PMOrtega, NVKan, HGarcia, SOKyselý, JUrban, AOrru, HIndermitte, EJaakkola, JJKRyti, NRIPascal, MGoodman, PGZeka, AMichelozzi, PScortichini, MHashizume, MHonda, YHurtado, MCruz, JSeposo, XNunes, BTeixeira, JPTobias, AÍñiguez, CForsberg, BÅström, CVicedo-Cabrera, AMRagettli, MSGuo, YLChen, BYZanobetti, ASchwartz, JDang, TNDo Van, DMayvaneh, FOvercenco, ALi, SGuo, Yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-29T15:16:36Zoai:repositorio-aberto.up.pt:10216/154107Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:19:32.142367Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
title |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
spellingShingle |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability Lee, JY |
title_short |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
title_full |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
title_fullStr |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
title_sort |
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
author |
Lee, JY |
author_facet |
Lee, JY Kim, H Gasparrini, A Armstrong, B Bell, ML Sera, F Lavigne, E Abrutzky, R Tong, S Coelho, MSZS Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Garcia, SO Kyselý, J Urban, A Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, NRI Pascal, M Goodman, PG Zeka, A Michelozzi, P Scortichini, M Hashizume, M Honda, Y Hurtado, M Cruz, J Seposo, X Nunes, B Teixeira, JP Tobias, A Íñiguez, C Forsberg, B Åström, C Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Ragettli, MS Guo, YL Chen, BY Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Do Van, D Mayvaneh, F Overcenco, A Li, S Guo, Y |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Kim, H Gasparrini, A Armstrong, B Bell, ML Sera, F Lavigne, E Abrutzky, R Tong, S Coelho, MSZS Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Garcia, SO Kyselý, J Urban, A Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, NRI Pascal, M Goodman, PG Zeka, A Michelozzi, P Scortichini, M Hashizume, M Honda, Y Hurtado, M Cruz, J Seposo, X Nunes, B Teixeira, JP Tobias, A Íñiguez, C Forsberg, B Åström, C Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Ragettli, MS Guo, YL Chen, BY Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Do Van, D Mayvaneh, F Overcenco, A Li, S Guo, Y |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lee, JY Kim, H Gasparrini, A Armstrong, B Bell, ML Sera, F Lavigne, E Abrutzky, R Tong, S Coelho, MSZS Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Garcia, SO Kyselý, J Urban, A Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, NRI Pascal, M Goodman, PG Zeka, A Michelozzi, P Scortichini, M Hashizume, M Honda, Y Hurtado, M Cruz, J Seposo, X Nunes, B Teixeira, JP Tobias, A Íñiguez, C Forsberg, B Åström, C Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Ragettli, MS Guo, YL Chen, BY Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Do Van, D Mayvaneh, F Overcenco, A Li, S Guo, Y |
description |
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10216/154107 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0160-4120 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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