The trade effects of pandemics

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Jalles, João Tovar
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Karras, Georgios
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403
Resumo: Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses.
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spelling The trade effects of pandemicspandemicscurrent accountlocal projectionpanel datarecessionsnonlinearitiesEarly evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses.ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaJalles, João TovarKarras, Georgios2022-02-05T16:55:40Z2022-022022-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403engJalles, Joáo Tovar e Georgios Karras (2022). "The trade effects of pandemics". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0214 – 20222184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:57Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23403Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:38.934080Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The trade effects of pandemics
title The trade effects of pandemics
spellingShingle The trade effects of pandemics
Jalles, João Tovar
pandemics
current account
local projection
panel data
recessions
nonlinearities
title_short The trade effects of pandemics
title_full The trade effects of pandemics
title_fullStr The trade effects of pandemics
title_full_unstemmed The trade effects of pandemics
title_sort The trade effects of pandemics
author Jalles, João Tovar
author_facet Jalles, João Tovar
Karras, Georgios
author_role author
author2 Karras, Georgios
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Jalles, João Tovar
Karras, Georgios
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv pandemics
current account
local projection
panel data
recessions
nonlinearities
topic pandemics
current account
local projection
panel data
recessions
nonlinearities
description Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-05T16:55:40Z
2022-02
2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Jalles, Joáo Tovar e Georgios Karras (2022). "The trade effects of pandemics". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0214 – 2022
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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