The trade effects of pandemics
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403 |
Resumo: | Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses. |
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The trade effects of pandemicspandemicscurrent accountlocal projectionpanel datarecessionsnonlinearitiesEarly evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses.ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaJalles, João TovarKarras, Georgios2022-02-05T16:55:40Z2022-022022-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403engJalles, Joáo Tovar e Georgios Karras (2022). "The trade effects of pandemics". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0214 – 20222184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:57Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23403Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:38.934080Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The trade effects of pandemics |
title |
The trade effects of pandemics |
spellingShingle |
The trade effects of pandemics Jalles, João Tovar pandemics current account local projection panel data recessions nonlinearities |
title_short |
The trade effects of pandemics |
title_full |
The trade effects of pandemics |
title_fullStr |
The trade effects of pandemics |
title_full_unstemmed |
The trade effects of pandemics |
title_sort |
The trade effects of pandemics |
author |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author_facet |
Jalles, João Tovar Karras, Georgios |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Karras, Georgios |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Jalles, João Tovar Karras, Georgios |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
pandemics current account local projection panel data recessions nonlinearities |
topic |
pandemics current account local projection panel data recessions nonlinearities |
description |
Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-02-05T16:55:40Z 2022-02 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23403 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Jalles, Joáo Tovar e Georgios Karras (2022). "The trade effects of pandemics". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0214 – 2022 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131170980495360 |