Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15713 |
Resumo: | This dissertation aims at understanding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock and bond market returns of the group of seven. We test the hypothesis that higher uncertainty levels cause decreases on these financial assets returns. We analyse the impact that the economic policy uncertainty index and previous returns have on current returns and if an increase of economic policy uncertainty lead to an increase of conditional volatility. This research relies on the EPU Index, developed by Baker et al. (2016), and employs daily data averaged into monthly time series for G7 stock and bond markets, covering the period from January 2000 to December 2016. Concerning the stock market, we find evidence of a significant impact of EPU on current returns for most of the countries. Canada and Italy are the exceptions. Concerning conditional volatility, we report that the EPU has impact on United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (U.K.), Canada, Germany and Japan. EPU does not show significant results to France and Italy. In the bond market and in contrast with previous returns, EPU does not have a great impact on the current returns for most of the countries. In what concerns conditional volatility, the previous returns have no influence for the entire sample and EPU presents significant results for U.S., Canada, Germany, Italy and Japan. |
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Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 caseEPUConditional volatilityCurrent returnsPrevious returnsFinançasPolítica económicaVolatilidadeMercado financeiroThis dissertation aims at understanding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock and bond market returns of the group of seven. We test the hypothesis that higher uncertainty levels cause decreases on these financial assets returns. We analyse the impact that the economic policy uncertainty index and previous returns have on current returns and if an increase of economic policy uncertainty lead to an increase of conditional volatility. This research relies on the EPU Index, developed by Baker et al. (2016), and employs daily data averaged into monthly time series for G7 stock and bond markets, covering the period from January 2000 to December 2016. Concerning the stock market, we find evidence of a significant impact of EPU on current returns for most of the countries. Canada and Italy are the exceptions. Concerning conditional volatility, we report that the EPU has impact on United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (U.K.), Canada, Germany and Japan. EPU does not show significant results to France and Italy. In the bond market and in contrast with previous returns, EPU does not have a great impact on the current returns for most of the countries. In what concerns conditional volatility, the previous returns have no influence for the entire sample and EPU presents significant results for U.S., Canada, Germany, Italy and Japan.Esta dissertação tem como objetivo compreender o impacto da incerteza económica nos retornos do mercado de ações e obrigações do grupo dos sete. Testamos a hipótese de que um maior nível de incerteza económica conduz à diminuição dos retornos destes ativos. Analisamos o impacto que o índice de incerteza económica e os retornos passados têm nos retornos atuais e se aumentos da incerteza económica se podem traduzir em aumentos da volatilidade condicional. Esta pesquisa recai sobre o índice EPU, desenvolvido por Baker et al. (2016), e compreende dados diários transformados em séries temporais mensais para os mercados de ações e obrigações do G7, entre Janeiro de 2000 e Dezembro de 2016. No que concerne ao mercado de ações, existe evidência de um impacto significativo da EPU nos retornos atuais, para a maioria países. Canadá e Itália são as excepções. Relativamente à volatilidade condicional, informamos que a EPU tem impacto nos Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Canadá, Alemanha e Japão. A EPU não apresenta resultados significativos para França e Itália. No mercado das obrigações e ao contrário dos retornos passados, a EPU não apresenta impacto nos retornos atuais para a maioria dos países. No que respeita à volatilidade condicional, verifica-se que os retornos passados não têm influência nesta variável, ao contrário da EPU que apresenta valores significativos para os Estados Unidos, Canadá, Alemanha, Itália e Japão.2018-04-26T13:23:52Z2017-12-18T00:00:00Z2017-12-182017-10info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfapplication/octet-streamhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/15713TID:201791382engCarvalho, Teresa Lopes deinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T18:00:48Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/15713Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:32:18.564307Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
title |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
spellingShingle |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case Carvalho, Teresa Lopes de EPU Conditional volatility Current returns Previous returns Finanças Política económica Volatilidade Mercado financeiro |
title_short |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
title_full |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
title_fullStr |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
title_sort |
Economic policy uncertainty and return on financial assets: the G7 case |
author |
Carvalho, Teresa Lopes de |
author_facet |
Carvalho, Teresa Lopes de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Carvalho, Teresa Lopes de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
EPU Conditional volatility Current returns Previous returns Finanças Política económica Volatilidade Mercado financeiro |
topic |
EPU Conditional volatility Current returns Previous returns Finanças Política económica Volatilidade Mercado financeiro |
description |
This dissertation aims at understanding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock and bond market returns of the group of seven. We test the hypothesis that higher uncertainty levels cause decreases on these financial assets returns. We analyse the impact that the economic policy uncertainty index and previous returns have on current returns and if an increase of economic policy uncertainty lead to an increase of conditional volatility. This research relies on the EPU Index, developed by Baker et al. (2016), and employs daily data averaged into monthly time series for G7 stock and bond markets, covering the period from January 2000 to December 2016. Concerning the stock market, we find evidence of a significant impact of EPU on current returns for most of the countries. Canada and Italy are the exceptions. Concerning conditional volatility, we report that the EPU has impact on United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (U.K.), Canada, Germany and Japan. EPU does not show significant results to France and Italy. In the bond market and in contrast with previous returns, EPU does not have a great impact on the current returns for most of the countries. In what concerns conditional volatility, the previous returns have no influence for the entire sample and EPU presents significant results for U.S., Canada, Germany, Italy and Japan. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-12-18T00:00:00Z 2017-12-18 2017-10 2018-04-26T13:23:52Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15713 TID:201791382 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15713 |
identifier_str_mv |
TID:201791382 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/octet-stream |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799134884942315520 |