The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/109491 |
Resumo: | Blennow, K., Persson, J., Gonçalves, L. M. S., Borys, A., Dutcǎ, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganičová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., & Reyer, C. P. O. (2020). The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : Implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters, 15(11), 1-10. [114061]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa |
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The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptationImplications for communications with European forest professionalsdecision-makingAdaptationClimate changeValue polarizationExpectationBlocked belief effectTipping point behaviorRenewable Energy, Sustainability and the EnvironmentEnvironmental Science(all)Public Health, Environmental and Occupational HealthSDG 13 - Climate ActionSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingSDG 7 - Affordable and Clean EnergyBlennow, K., Persson, J., Gonçalves, L. M. S., Borys, A., Dutcǎ, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganičová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., & Reyer, C. P. O. (2020). The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : Implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters, 15(11), 1-10. [114061]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2faBeliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of 'tipping point' behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia (FCT)RUNBlennow, K.Persson, J.Gonçalves, Luísa Maria S.Borys, A.Dutcǎ, I.Hynynen, J.Janeczko, E.Lyubenova, M.Merganič, J.Merganičová, K.Peltoniemi, M.Petr, M.Reboredo, F.Vacchiano, G.Reyer, C. P.O.2020-12-30T05:04:45Z2020-11-232020-11-23T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article10application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/109491eng1748-9318PURE: 27090887https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:53:50Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/109491Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:41:28.300490Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation Implications for communications with European forest professionals |
title |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
spellingShingle |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation Blennow, K. decision-making Adaptation Climate change Value polarization Expectation Blocked belief effect Tipping point behavior Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Environmental Science(all) Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy |
title_short |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
title_full |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
title_fullStr |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
title_sort |
The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation |
author |
Blennow, K. |
author_facet |
Blennow, K. Persson, J. Gonçalves, Luísa Maria S. Borys, A. Dutcǎ, I. Hynynen, J. Janeczko, E. Lyubenova, M. Merganič, J. Merganičová, K. Peltoniemi, M. Petr, M. Reboredo, F. Vacchiano, G. Reyer, C. P.O. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Persson, J. Gonçalves, Luísa Maria S. Borys, A. Dutcǎ, I. Hynynen, J. Janeczko, E. Lyubenova, M. Merganič, J. Merganičová, K. Peltoniemi, M. Petr, M. Reboredo, F. Vacchiano, G. Reyer, C. P.O. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS) Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia (FCT) RUN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Blennow, K. Persson, J. Gonçalves, Luísa Maria S. Borys, A. Dutcǎ, I. Hynynen, J. Janeczko, E. Lyubenova, M. Merganič, J. Merganičová, K. Peltoniemi, M. Petr, M. Reboredo, F. Vacchiano, G. Reyer, C. P.O. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
decision-making Adaptation Climate change Value polarization Expectation Blocked belief effect Tipping point behavior Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Environmental Science(all) Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy |
topic |
decision-making Adaptation Climate change Value polarization Expectation Blocked belief effect Tipping point behavior Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Environmental Science(all) Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy |
description |
Blennow, K., Persson, J., Gonçalves, L. M. S., Borys, A., Dutcǎ, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganičová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., & Reyer, C. P. O. (2020). The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : Implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters, 15(11), 1-10. [114061]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-12-30T05:04:45Z 2020-11-23 2020-11-23T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/109491 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/109491 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1748-9318 PURE: 27090887 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
10 application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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