How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995 |
Resumo: | Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables. |
id |
RCAP_c1bbcd628d9f22106f3f115e8386bf12 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/19995 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisitedGeneralized linear modelsmodel performancemodel evaluationmodel extrapolationdiscriminationcalibrationLutra lutraSpecies distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy2017-01-24T12:09:19Z2017-01-242016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995http://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995eng2. Areias-Guerreiro, J.; Mira, A.; Barbosa, A.M. in press. How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited. Hystrix, the Italian Journal of MammalogyHystrix, The Italian Journal of MammalogyICAAMndamira@uevora.ptnd221doi:10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11867Areias-Guerreiro, JoanaMira, AntónioBarbosa, A. Márciainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:09:40Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/19995Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:11:35.553919Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
title |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
spellingShingle |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited Areias-Guerreiro, Joana Generalized linear models model performance model evaluation model extrapolation discrimination calibration Lutra lutra |
title_short |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
title_full |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
title_fullStr |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
title_full_unstemmed |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
title_sort |
How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited |
author |
Areias-Guerreiro, Joana |
author_facet |
Areias-Guerreiro, Joana Mira, António Barbosa, A. Márcia |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Mira, António Barbosa, A. Márcia |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Areias-Guerreiro, Joana Mira, António Barbosa, A. Márcia |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Generalized linear models model performance model evaluation model extrapolation discrimination calibration Lutra lutra |
topic |
Generalized linear models model performance model evaluation model extrapolation discrimination calibration Lutra lutra |
description |
Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z 2017-01-24T12:09:19Z 2017-01-24 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995 http://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/19995 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2. Areias-Guerreiro, J.; Mira, A.; Barbosa, A.M. in press. How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited. Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy Hystrix, The Italian Journal of Mammalogy ICAAM nd amira@uevora.pt nd 221 doi:10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11867 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799136597828960256 |