Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Ferrão, João Luís
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Mendes, Jorge M., Painho, Marco
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
Resumo: Ferrão, J. L., Mendes, J. M., & Painho, M. (2017). Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique. Parasites and Vectors, 10(1), 1-12. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
id RCAP_c7f2b225d431fb7181b68041c2e7af0c
oai_identifier_str oai:run.unl.pt:10362/27406
network_acronym_str RCAP
network_name_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository_id_str 7160
spelling Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, MozambiqueChimoioMalariaModellingPrecision public healthParasitologyInfectious DiseasesSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingFerrão, J. L., Mendes, J. M., & Painho, M. (2017). Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique. Parasites and Vectors, 10(1), 1-12. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6Background: Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Methods: Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Results: Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1)52, and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. Conclusion: The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the prediction of malaria cases, this can be used for designing public precision health measures. The model can be used for planning specific measures for Chimoio municipality. Prospective and multidisciplinary research involving researchers from different fields is welcomed to improve the effect of climatic factors and other factors in malaria cases.NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management SchoolRUNFerrão, João LuísMendes, Jorge M.Painho, Marco2017-12-28T23:10:11Z2017-05-252017-05-25T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article12application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6engPURE: 3259416http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85019704675&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:14:29Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/27406Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:28:40.668332Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
title Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
spellingShingle Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
Ferrão, João Luís
Chimoio
Malaria
Modelling
Precision public health
Parasitology
Infectious Diseases
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
title_short Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
title_full Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
title_fullStr Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
title_sort Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique
author Ferrão, João Luís
author_facet Ferrão, João Luís
Mendes, Jorge M.
Painho, Marco
author_role author
author2 Mendes, Jorge M.
Painho, Marco
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ferrão, João Luís
Mendes, Jorge M.
Painho, Marco
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Chimoio
Malaria
Modelling
Precision public health
Parasitology
Infectious Diseases
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
topic Chimoio
Malaria
Modelling
Precision public health
Parasitology
Infectious Diseases
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
description Ferrão, J. L., Mendes, J. M., & Painho, M. (2017). Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique. Parasites and Vectors, 10(1), 1-12. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-12-28T23:10:11Z
2017-05-25
2017-05-25T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv PURE: 3259416
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85019704675&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-017-2205-6
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 12
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1799137912099438592

Registros relacionados