Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes
Data de Publicação: 2012
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093
Resumo: Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais
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spelling Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH modelBiomassVulnerabilityClimate changeA1B IPCC ScenarioProductivityCO2 FertilizationDissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas AmbientaisGreenhouse gas abatement policies (as a measure of preventing further contribution to global warming) are expected to increase the demand for renewable sources of energy driving a growing attention on Biomass as a valuable option as a renewable source of energy able to reduce CO2 emissions, by displacing fossil fuel use. The vulnerability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) to climate changes, along with the fact that it is a water-limited region, drive a great concern and interest in understand the potentials of biomass for energy production under projected climate changes, since water shortage is a projected consequence of it. Henceforth the goals stated for this work include the understanding of the impact magnitude that climate changes and the solely effect of rising CO2 (in accordance to the prescribed in A1B scenario from IPPC) have on biomass and productivity over the IP; the modeling of the interannual variability in terrestrial productivity and biomass across de region (having the period 1960-1990 as reference) and the energy potentials derived by biomass in future scenarios (2060-2090 and 2070-2100 periods). The carbon fluxes were modeled by JSBACH model and its results were handled using GIS and statistical analysis. A better understanding of the applicability (and reliability) of this model on achieving the latter stated goals was another goal purposed in this work. IP has shown a broadly positive response to climate change, i.e. increased productivity under scenarios admitting elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration (increases in GPP by ~41%; in forest NPP by ~54% and herbaceous NPP by ~36%, for 2060-2090 period), and smaller and negative response under scenarios disregarding rising CO2 levels (i.e. CO2 constant at 296ppm). The productivity and biomass correlation with changing climate variables also differed between different CO2 scenarios. The increase of water-use efficiency by 58% was as a result of CO2 fertilization effect, could explain the increase of productivity, although many limitations of the model (such as disregard of nitrogen cycle and land-use dynamics) poses many considerations to the acceptability of results and the overestimating productivity comparatively to many projections for the IP. Notwithstanding the comparison of changes in climate variables, showed a great correlation of results with other authors. A comprehensive analysis of biomass supply and its availability during scenarios with elevated CO2, shown that by 2060-2090, residues from thinning and logging activities over forest biomass have a potential of 0,165 and 0,495 EJ, and residues from agricultural activities (herbaceous biomass) have a potential of 0,346 EJ under a HIGH-YIELD scenario (assuming 40% of residues removal rate), corresponding to a share of current energy consumption of 13, 42 and 30%, respectively. The reasonability of these results was assessed by comparing with similar studies during the reference period.Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaSeixas, Maria JúliaCarvalhais, Nuno Miguel MatiasRUNAparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes2013-03-07T16:00:57Z20122012-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T03:41:55Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/9093Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:18:32.145435Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
title Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
spellingShingle Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes
Biomass
Vulnerability
Climate change
A1B IPCC Scenario
Productivity
CO2 Fertilization
title_short Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
title_full Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
title_fullStr Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
title_sort Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model
author Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes
author_facet Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Seixas, Maria Júlia
Carvalhais, Nuno Miguel Matias
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Biomass
Vulnerability
Climate change
A1B IPCC Scenario
Productivity
CO2 Fertilization
topic Biomass
Vulnerability
Climate change
A1B IPCC Scenario
Productivity
CO2 Fertilization
description Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
2013-03-07T16:00:57Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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