Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4 |
Resumo: | While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development. |
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Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave riskChemistry(all)Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)Physics and Astronomy(all)While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNRusso, SimoneSillmann, JanaSippel, SebastianBarcikowska, Monika J.Ghisetti, ClaudiaSmid, MarekO’Neill, Brian2019-01-29T23:46:38Z2019-12-012019-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4eng2041-1723PURE: 11385186http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059886159&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:28:23Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/59008Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:33:19.572829Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
title |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
spellingShingle |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk Russo, Simone Chemistry(all) Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Physics and Astronomy(all) |
title_short |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
title_full |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
title_fullStr |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
title_full_unstemmed |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
title_sort |
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk |
author |
Russo, Simone |
author_facet |
Russo, Simone Sillmann, Jana Sippel, Sebastian Barcikowska, Monika J. Ghisetti, Claudia Smid, Marek O’Neill, Brian |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sillmann, Jana Sippel, Sebastian Barcikowska, Monika J. Ghisetti, Claudia Smid, Marek O’Neill, Brian |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS) RUN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Russo, Simone Sillmann, Jana Sippel, Sebastian Barcikowska, Monika J. Ghisetti, Claudia Smid, Marek O’Neill, Brian |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Chemistry(all) Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Physics and Astronomy(all) |
topic |
Chemistry(all) Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Physics and Astronomy(all) |
description |
While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-01-29T23:46:38Z 2019-12-01 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2041-1723 PURE: 11385186 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059886159&partnerID=8YFLogxK https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799137955166552064 |