Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/59249 |
Resumo: | The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount. |
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Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plantsAedes albopictusClimatic similarityInternational tradeInvasive speciesPublic healthTime of arrivalThe mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount.and by the Research Unit and . S.O. was funded through FCT, I.P., under the programme ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment—Individual Support’ within the contract ‘2020.03873.CEECINDBritish Ecological SocietyRepositório da Universidade de LisboaOliveira, SandraCapinha, CésarRocha, Jorge2023-09-13T10:24:51Z20232023-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/59249engOliveira, S., Capinha, C., & Rocha, J. (2023). Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants. Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.145031365-266410.1111/1365-2664.14503info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T17:08:15Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/59249Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:09:11.347889Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
title |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
spellingShingle |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants Oliveira, Sandra Aedes albopictus Climatic similarity International trade Invasive species Public health Time of arrival |
title_short |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
title_full |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
title_sort |
Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants |
author |
Oliveira, Sandra |
author_facet |
Oliveira, Sandra Capinha, César Rocha, Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Capinha, César Rocha, Jorge |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, Sandra Capinha, César Rocha, Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Aedes albopictus Climatic similarity International trade Invasive species Public health Time of arrival |
topic |
Aedes albopictus Climatic similarity International trade Invasive species Public health Time of arrival |
description |
The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-13T10:24:51Z 2023 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/59249 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/59249 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, S., Capinha, C., & Rocha, J. (2023). Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plants. Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14503 1365-2664 10.1111/1365-2664.14503 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
British Ecological Society |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
British Ecological Society |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799134648148688896 |