Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Magalhães, Pedro C.
Data de Publicação: 2008
Outros Autores: Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222
Resumo: Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.
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spelling Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general electionsForecastingPortuguese general electionsEconomics and electionsSemi-presidentialismElectoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.NIPE – Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas – is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010) of the III Quadro Comunitário de Apoio (QCA III), which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)Universidade do MinhoMagalhães, Pedro C.Conraria, Luís Aguiar20082008-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222engNIPE Working Paper series; 20info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:30:56Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/8222Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:26:10.786987Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
title Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
spellingShingle Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
Magalhães, Pedro C.
Forecasting
Portuguese general elections
Economics and elections
Semi-presidentialism
title_short Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
title_full Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
title_fullStr Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
title_full_unstemmed Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
title_sort Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general elections
author Magalhães, Pedro C.
author_facet Magalhães, Pedro C.
Conraria, Luís Aguiar
author_role author
author2 Conraria, Luís Aguiar
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Magalhães, Pedro C.
Conraria, Luís Aguiar
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Forecasting
Portuguese general elections
Economics and elections
Semi-presidentialism
topic Forecasting
Portuguese general elections
Economics and elections
Semi-presidentialism
description Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008
2008-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv NIPE Working Paper series; 20
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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