Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412 |
Resumo: | The use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. AMonte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick’s law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure. |
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Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materialsExposure assessmentFood packagingMigrationProbabilistic modelingThe use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. AMonte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick’s law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure.WileyVeritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaPoças, Maria F.Oliveira, Jorge C.Brandsch, RainerHogg, Tim2012-01-12T10:38:24Z20102010-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412engPOÇAS, Maria F... [et al.] - Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332. Vol. 30, n.º 7 (2010), p. 1052-10610272-433210.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01394.x1539-6924WOS:000279939700008info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-12T17:13:01Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/7412Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:07:30.250865Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
title |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
spellingShingle |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials Poças, Maria F. Exposure assessment Food packaging Migration Probabilistic modeling |
title_short |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
title_full |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
title_fullStr |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
title_full_unstemmed |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
title_sort |
Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials |
author |
Poças, Maria F. |
author_facet |
Poças, Maria F. Oliveira, Jorge C. Brandsch, Rainer Hogg, Tim |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Oliveira, Jorge C. Brandsch, Rainer Hogg, Tim |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Poças, Maria F. Oliveira, Jorge C. Brandsch, Rainer Hogg, Tim |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Exposure assessment Food packaging Migration Probabilistic modeling |
topic |
Exposure assessment Food packaging Migration Probabilistic modeling |
description |
The use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. AMonte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick’s law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z 2012-01-12T10:38:24Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/7412 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
POÇAS, Maria F... [et al.] - Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332. Vol. 30, n.º 7 (2010), p. 1052-1061 0272-4332 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01394.x 1539-6924 WOS:000279939700008 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131743866847232 |