Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Ribeiro, Paulo Flores
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Moreira, Francisco, Canadas, Maria João, Novais, Ana, Leal, Miguel, Oliveira, Sandra, Bergonse, Rafaello, Zêzere, José, Santos, José Lima
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/56542
Resumo: Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
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spelling Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy OptionsWildfire mitigationWildfire policyFire regimeAgent-based modellingLand cover choiceFire resilienceLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.MDPIRepositório da Universidade de LisboaRibeiro, Paulo FloresMoreira, FranciscoCanadas, Maria JoãoNovais, AnaLeal, MiguelOliveira, SandraBergonse, RafaelloZêzere, JoséSantos, José Lima2023-03-06T14:42:43Z20232023-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/56542engRibeiro, P. F., Moreira, F., Canadas, M. J., Novais, A., Leal, M., Oliveira, S., Bergonse, R., Zêzere, J. L., Santos, J. L. (2023). Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options. Fire, 6(3),102. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire60301022571-625510.3390/fire6030102info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T17:04:12Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/56542Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:07:05.115081Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
title Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
spellingShingle Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
Ribeiro, Paulo Flores
Wildfire mitigation
Wildfire policy
Fire regime
Agent-based modelling
Land cover choice
Fire resilience
title_short Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
title_full Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
title_fullStr Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
title_full_unstemmed Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
title_sort Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
author Ribeiro, Paulo Flores
author_facet Ribeiro, Paulo Flores
Moreira, Francisco
Canadas, Maria João
Novais, Ana
Leal, Miguel
Oliveira, Sandra
Bergonse, Rafaello
Zêzere, José
Santos, José Lima
author_role author
author2 Moreira, Francisco
Canadas, Maria João
Novais, Ana
Leal, Miguel
Oliveira, Sandra
Bergonse, Rafaello
Zêzere, José
Santos, José Lima
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ribeiro, Paulo Flores
Moreira, Francisco
Canadas, Maria João
Novais, Ana
Leal, Miguel
Oliveira, Sandra
Bergonse, Rafaello
Zêzere, José
Santos, José Lima
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Wildfire mitigation
Wildfire policy
Fire regime
Agent-based modelling
Land cover choice
Fire resilience
topic Wildfire mitigation
Wildfire policy
Fire regime
Agent-based modelling
Land cover choice
Fire resilience
description Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-06T14:42:43Z
2023
2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/56542
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/56542
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ribeiro, P. F., Moreira, F., Canadas, M. J., Novais, A., Leal, M., Oliveira, S., Bergonse, R., Zêzere, J. L., Santos, J. L. (2023). Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options. Fire, 6(3),102. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6030102
2571-6255
10.3390/fire6030102
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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