Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes
Data de Publicação: 2020
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/108369
Resumo: This research investigates the efficiency of the sports betting market using football, with an original database compiling information for the last 10 sports seasons for three football leagues with different characteristics. Both literature and intuition tell us that prices or odds have made up a good forecast on the outcome of the sports event but also that bookmakers react poorly to information.This premise was tested through statistical and economic efficiency tests using the created model.In-sample evidence shows that odds are biased predictions of the matches outcome but there are investment strategies capable of generating statistically significant profits in the long run.Financial instruments available to investors interested in this market are also described and analyzed.
id RCAP_f08d3f51b0bbf157ab7cff241f71e226
oai_identifier_str oai:run.unl.pt:10362/108369
network_acronym_str RCAP
network_name_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository_id_str 7160
spelling Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting marketSports bettingBetting marketsMarket efficiencySports results forecastBehavioral financeAlternative investmentsHedge fundsDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e GestãoThis research investigates the efficiency of the sports betting market using football, with an original database compiling information for the last 10 sports seasons for three football leagues with different characteristics. Both literature and intuition tell us that prices or odds have made up a good forecast on the outcome of the sports event but also that bookmakers react poorly to information.This premise was tested through statistical and economic efficiency tests using the created model.In-sample evidence shows that odds are biased predictions of the matches outcome but there are investment strategies capable of generating statistically significant profits in the long run.Financial instruments available to investors interested in this market are also described and analyzed.Morales, AntônioOttonello, GiorgioRUNLeite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes2023-09-21T00:30:48Z2020-09-2120202020-09-21T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/108369TID:202524230enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:52:52Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/108369Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:41:09.351270Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
title Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
spellingShingle Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes
Sports betting
Betting markets
Market efficiency
Sports results forecast
Behavioral finance
Alternative investments
Hedge funds
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
title_short Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
title_full Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
title_fullStr Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
title_full_unstemmed Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
title_sort Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market
author Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes
author_facet Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Morales, Antônio
Ottonello, Giorgio
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Sports betting
Betting markets
Market efficiency
Sports results forecast
Behavioral finance
Alternative investments
Hedge funds
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
topic Sports betting
Betting markets
Market efficiency
Sports results forecast
Behavioral finance
Alternative investments
Hedge funds
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
description This research investigates the efficiency of the sports betting market using football, with an original database compiling information for the last 10 sports seasons for three football leagues with different characteristics. Both literature and intuition tell us that prices or odds have made up a good forecast on the outcome of the sports event but also that bookmakers react poorly to information.This premise was tested through statistical and economic efficiency tests using the created model.In-sample evidence shows that odds are biased predictions of the matches outcome but there are investment strategies capable of generating statistically significant profits in the long run.Financial instruments available to investors interested in this market are also described and analyzed.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-09-21
2020
2020-09-21T00:00:00Z
2023-09-21T00:30:48Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/108369
TID:202524230
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/108369
identifier_str_mv TID:202524230
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1799138024785707008

Registros relacionados