Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Paget, John
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Spreeuwenberg, Peter, Charu, Vivek, Taylor, Robert J., Iuliano, A Danielle, Bresee, Joseph, Simonsen, Lone, Viboud, Cecile, Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network, GLaMOR Collaborating Team
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7936
Resumo: Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network: Portugal: Susana Pereira da Silva, Emanuel Rodrigues, Baltazar Nunes, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Ausenda Machado (Epidemiology Department, National Health Institute Doutor Ricardo Jorge).
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spelling Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR ProjectSeasonal InflluenzaInfluenza BurdenMortalidadeEstados de Saúde e de DoençaGlobal Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network: Portugal: Susana Pereira da Silva, Emanuel Rodrigues, Baltazar Nunes, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Ausenda Machado (Epidemiology Department, National Health Institute Doutor Ricardo Jorge).Background: Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global and regional estimates of influenza mortality burden and explore mortality trends over time and geography. Methods: We compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during 2002-2011. From these we extrapolated the influenza burden for all 193 countries of the world using a multiple imputation approach. We then used mixed linear regression models to identify factors associated with high seasonal influenza mortality burden, including influenza types and subtypes, health care and socio-demographic development indicators, and baseline mortality levels. Results: We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older. Global burden estimates were robust to the choice of countries included in the extrapolation model. For people <65 years, higher baseline respiratory mortality, lower level of access to health care and seasons dominated by the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype were associated with higher influenza-associated mortality, while lower level of socio-demographic development and A(H3N2) dominance was associated with higher influenza mortality in adults ≥65 years. Conclusions: Our global estimate of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality is consistent with the 2017 estimate, despite a different modelling strategy, and the lower 2019 estimate which only captured deaths directly caused by influenza. Our finding that baseline respiratory mortality and access to health care are associated with influenza-related mortality in persons <65 years suggests that health care improvements in low and middle-income countries might substantially reduce seasonal influenza mortality. Our estimates add to the body of evidence on the variation in influenza burden over time and geography, and begin to address the relationship between influenza-associated mortality, health and development.This study was supported by the WHO on a contract with NIVEL (APW 201497873) and the MISMS influenza program led by in-house research division of the Fogarty International Center of the US NIHInternational Society of Global HealthRepositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de SaúdePaget, JohnSpreeuwenberg, PeterCharu, VivekTaylor, Robert J.Iuliano, A DanielleBresee, JosephSimonsen, LoneViboud, CecileGlobal Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator NetworkGLaMOR Collaborating Team2022-02-04T16:53:44Z2019-122019-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7936engJ Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.0204212047-297810.7189/jogh.09.020421info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-20T15:42:12Zoai:repositorio.insa.pt:10400.18/7936Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:42:25.540815Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
title Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
spellingShingle Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
Paget, John
Seasonal Inflluenza
Influenza Burden
Mortalidade
Estados de Saúde e de Doença
title_short Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
title_full Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
title_fullStr Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
title_full_unstemmed Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
title_sort Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
author Paget, John
author_facet Paget, John
Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Charu, Vivek
Taylor, Robert J.
Iuliano, A Danielle
Bresee, Joseph
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cecile
Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network
GLaMOR Collaborating Team
author_role author
author2 Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Charu, Vivek
Taylor, Robert J.
Iuliano, A Danielle
Bresee, Joseph
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cecile
Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network
GLaMOR Collaborating Team
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de Saúde
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Paget, John
Spreeuwenberg, Peter
Charu, Vivek
Taylor, Robert J.
Iuliano, A Danielle
Bresee, Joseph
Simonsen, Lone
Viboud, Cecile
Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network
GLaMOR Collaborating Team
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Seasonal Inflluenza
Influenza Burden
Mortalidade
Estados de Saúde e de Doença
topic Seasonal Inflluenza
Influenza Burden
Mortalidade
Estados de Saúde e de Doença
description Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network: Portugal: Susana Pereira da Silva, Emanuel Rodrigues, Baltazar Nunes, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Ausenda Machado (Epidemiology Department, National Health Institute Doutor Ricardo Jorge).
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-12
2019-12-01T00:00:00Z
2022-02-04T16:53:44Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7936
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/7936
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421
2047-2978
10.7189/jogh.09.020421
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv International Society of Global Health
publisher.none.fl_str_mv International Society of Global Health
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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