Ageing and productivity: long run implications for Portugal

• Autor(a) principal: Reis, António Miguel Ferreira Oliveira Domingos Do
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/121891
• topic: Ageing; Conditional convergence; Demographics; Human capital; Productivity; Tfp; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

In order to provide guidance to member states, and issue policy recommendations on Ageing related policies, the European Commission publishes the so-called Ageing Report. However, the report’s methodology is opaque and relies on debatable assumptions. This master thesis provides two key contributions. First, we replicate the Ageing Report methodology for the computation of potential output, by developing a modelling tool that allows for the derivation of the 2018 Ageing Report results. Our second contribution is precisely to challenge one key assumption of the model, namely the long run technological convergence. Different scenarios for Total Factor Productivity are derived and the estimates for the Potential GDP are presented. These estimations are significantly different from the Ageing Report baseline results, and thus impact the policy recommendations. Our results are illustrated for the case of Portugal, but the tool we created allows for an easy replication for other member states.