Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862012000400001 |
Resumo: | The present work analyses the inter-seasonal predictability of precipitation during the austral summer in a subregion of Southeastern South America that includes Rio Grande do Sul and Northern Uruguay (RGS-NU), and proposes a methodology to produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts for this region, based on the use of NOAA CFS v2. It is found that the correlation between ENSO and the precipitation over RGS-NU during December-January-February is statistically significant after the late 70's, but not before. Considering that this relationship changes in different multidecadal periods, it is useful to explore a forecast system based on numerical models. We studied the hindcasts from NOAA CFS v2 initialized during October of the years 1983 to 2009, and found that the hindcasts of meridional wind at 850 hPa averaged over certain region of South America have statistically significant skill, in terms of correlation, to predict the observed precipitation over RGS-NU. The proposed forecasts are based on this relationship. The CFS v2 hindcasts also show realistic anomalous circulation patterns associated with the anomalous precipitation in the region and the season considered. This suggests that the forecasts may be further improved by using regional models combined with the CFS v2 outputs. |
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Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
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Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscalingSeasonal forecastStatistical downscalingSoutheastern South AmericaHindcastsThe present work analyses the inter-seasonal predictability of precipitation during the austral summer in a subregion of Southeastern South America that includes Rio Grande do Sul and Northern Uruguay (RGS-NU), and proposes a methodology to produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts for this region, based on the use of NOAA CFS v2. It is found that the correlation between ENSO and the precipitation over RGS-NU during December-January-February is statistically significant after the late 70's, but not before. Considering that this relationship changes in different multidecadal periods, it is useful to explore a forecast system based on numerical models. We studied the hindcasts from NOAA CFS v2 initialized during October of the years 1983 to 2009, and found that the hindcasts of meridional wind at 850 hPa averaged over certain region of South America have statistically significant skill, in terms of correlation, to predict the observed precipitation over RGS-NU. The proposed forecasts are based on this relationship. The CFS v2 hindcasts also show realistic anomalous circulation patterns associated with the anomalous precipitation in the region and the season considered. This suggests that the forecasts may be further improved by using regional models combined with the CFS v2 outputs.Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia2012-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862012000400001Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia v.27 n.4 2012reponame:Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online)instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET)instacron:SBMET10.1590/S0102-77862012000400001info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCazes Boezio,GabrielTalento,StefaniePisciottano Jalabert,Gabriel Jorgeeng2013-01-29T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0102-77862012000400001Revistahttp://www.rbmet.org.br/port/index.phpONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbmet@rbmet.org.br1982-43510102-7786opendoar:2013-01-29T00:00Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
title |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling Cazes Boezio,Gabriel Seasonal forecast Statistical downscaling Southeastern South America Hindcasts |
title_short |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
title_full |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
title_sort |
Seasonal probability forecasts of december-january-february precipitation in northern Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul obtained with the coupled forecast system v2 of NOAA and statistical downscaling |
author |
Cazes Boezio,Gabriel |
author_facet |
Cazes Boezio,Gabriel Talento,Stefanie Pisciottano Jalabert,Gabriel Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Talento,Stefanie Pisciottano Jalabert,Gabriel Jorge |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cazes Boezio,Gabriel Talento,Stefanie Pisciottano Jalabert,Gabriel Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Seasonal forecast Statistical downscaling Southeastern South America Hindcasts |
topic |
Seasonal forecast Statistical downscaling Southeastern South America Hindcasts |
description |
The present work analyses the inter-seasonal predictability of precipitation during the austral summer in a subregion of Southeastern South America that includes Rio Grande do Sul and Northern Uruguay (RGS-NU), and proposes a methodology to produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts for this region, based on the use of NOAA CFS v2. It is found that the correlation between ENSO and the precipitation over RGS-NU during December-January-February is statistically significant after the late 70's, but not before. Considering that this relationship changes in different multidecadal periods, it is useful to explore a forecast system based on numerical models. We studied the hindcasts from NOAA CFS v2 initialized during October of the years 1983 to 2009, and found that the hindcasts of meridional wind at 850 hPa averaged over certain region of South America have statistically significant skill, in terms of correlation, to predict the observed precipitation over RGS-NU. The proposed forecasts are based on this relationship. The CFS v2 hindcasts also show realistic anomalous circulation patterns associated with the anomalous precipitation in the region and the season considered. This suggests that the forecasts may be further improved by using regional models combined with the CFS v2 outputs. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862012000400001 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862012000400001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0102-77862012000400001 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia v.27 n.4 2012 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) instacron:SBMET |
instname_str |
Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) |
instacron_str |
SBMET |
institution |
SBMET |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia (SBMET) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rbmet@rbmet.org.br |
_version_ |
1752122084421533696 |