Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Góis,Aédson Nascimento
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Laureano,Estevão Esmi, Santos,David da Silva, Sánchez,Daniel Eduardo, Souza,Luiz Fernando, Vieira,Rita de Cássia Almeida, Oliveira,Jussiely Cunha, Santana-Santos,Eduesley
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368
Resumo: Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population.
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spelling Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling studyCOVID-19Coronavirus infectionSocial isolationEpidemiologyAbstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population.Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical v.53 2020reponame:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropicalinstname:Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)instacron:SBMT10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGóis,Aédson NascimentoLaureano,Estevão EsmiSantos,David da SilvaSánchez,Daniel EduardoSouza,Luiz FernandoVieira,Rita de Cássia AlmeidaOliveira,Jussiely CunhaSantana-Santos,Eduesleyeng2020-10-19T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0037-86822020000100368Revistahttps://www.sbmt.org.br/portal/revista/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||dalmo@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br|| rsbmt@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br1678-98490037-8682opendoar:2020-10-19T00:00Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
title Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
spellingShingle Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
Góis,Aédson Nascimento
COVID-19
Coronavirus infection
Social isolation
Epidemiology
title_short Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
title_full Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
title_fullStr Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
title_full_unstemmed Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
title_sort Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
author Góis,Aédson Nascimento
author_facet Góis,Aédson Nascimento
Laureano,Estevão Esmi
Santos,David da Silva
Sánchez,Daniel Eduardo
Souza,Luiz Fernando
Vieira,Rita de Cássia Almeida
Oliveira,Jussiely Cunha
Santana-Santos,Eduesley
author_role author
author2 Laureano,Estevão Esmi
Santos,David da Silva
Sánchez,Daniel Eduardo
Souza,Luiz Fernando
Vieira,Rita de Cássia Almeida
Oliveira,Jussiely Cunha
Santana-Santos,Eduesley
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Góis,Aédson Nascimento
Laureano,Estevão Esmi
Santos,David da Silva
Sánchez,Daniel Eduardo
Souza,Luiz Fernando
Vieira,Rita de Cássia Almeida
Oliveira,Jussiely Cunha
Santana-Santos,Eduesley
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Coronavirus infection
Social isolation
Epidemiology
topic COVID-19
Coronavirus infection
Social isolation
Epidemiology
description Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical v.53 2020
reponame:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
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instacron_str SBMT
institution SBMT
reponame_str Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
collection Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||dalmo@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br|| rsbmt@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br
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