Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized. |
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Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, BrazilTime-seriesClimate changesEl Niño. WaveletsABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical v.55 2022reponame:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropicalinstname:Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)instacron:SBMT10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFerreira,Henrique dos SantosNóbrega,Ranyére SilvaBrito,Pedro Vinícius da SilvaFarias,Jéssica PiresAmorim,Jaime HenriqueMoreira,Elvis Bergue MarizMendez,Érick CarvalhoLuiz,Wilson Barroseng2022-06-03T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0037-86822022000100317Revistahttps://www.sbmt.org.br/portal/revista/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||dalmo@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br|| rsbmt@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br1678-98490037-8682opendoar:2022-06-03T00:00Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
title |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil Ferreira,Henrique dos Santos Time-series Climate changes El Niño. Wavelets |
title_short |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
title_full |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
title_sort |
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
author |
Ferreira,Henrique dos Santos |
author_facet |
Ferreira,Henrique dos Santos Nóbrega,Ranyére Silva Brito,Pedro Vinícius da Silva Farias,Jéssica Pires Amorim,Jaime Henrique Moreira,Elvis Bergue Mariz Mendez,Érick Carvalho Luiz,Wilson Barros |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Nóbrega,Ranyére Silva Brito,Pedro Vinícius da Silva Farias,Jéssica Pires Amorim,Jaime Henrique Moreira,Elvis Bergue Mariz Mendez,Érick Carvalho Luiz,Wilson Barros |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ferreira,Henrique dos Santos Nóbrega,Ranyére Silva Brito,Pedro Vinícius da Silva Farias,Jéssica Pires Amorim,Jaime Henrique Moreira,Elvis Bergue Mariz Mendez,Érick Carvalho Luiz,Wilson Barros |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Time-series Climate changes El Niño. Wavelets |
topic |
Time-series Climate changes El Niño. Wavelets |
description |
ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical v.55 2022 reponame:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) instacron:SBMT |
instname_str |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
instacron_str |
SBMT |
institution |
SBMT |
reponame_str |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
collection |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||dalmo@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br|| rsbmt@rsbmt.uftm.edu.br |
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1752122163044810752 |