Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Sant'Anna,Annibal Parracho
Data de Publicação: 2008
Outros Autores: Ribeiro,Rodrigo Otavio de Araujo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Pesquisa operacional (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382008000300009
Resumo: This paper studies strategies to access customer lifetime value (CLV). Traditionally, heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM) are used to determine the best customers. Here, some forms of directly exploring these parameters to predict CLV are compared to an approach based on fitting a stochastic model. The model employed is a composition of a model for the number of transactions along the residual lifetime and a model for the value spent. New evidence is raised on the effect of aggregating transactions monthly. The data analyzed refer to two years of purchases of a group of customers of the same entrance cohort of a fidelity program cadastre of a supermarkets network in Rio de Janeiro. Using the first year to calibrate and the second year to validate the models, good fit of both models to the series of individual data and coherent CLV predictions are obtained.
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spelling Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets networkcustomer lifetime valueknowledge managementmarketingretailmodelingThis paper studies strategies to access customer lifetime value (CLV). Traditionally, heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM) are used to determine the best customers. Here, some forms of directly exploring these parameters to predict CLV are compared to an approach based on fitting a stochastic model. The model employed is a composition of a model for the number of transactions along the residual lifetime and a model for the value spent. New evidence is raised on the effect of aggregating transactions monthly. The data analyzed refer to two years of purchases of a group of customers of the same entrance cohort of a fidelity program cadastre of a supermarkets network in Rio de Janeiro. Using the first year to calibrate and the second year to validate the models, good fit of both models to the series of individual data and coherent CLV predictions are obtained.Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional2008-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382008000300009Pesquisa Operacional v.28 n.3 2008reponame:Pesquisa operacional (Online)instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)instacron:SOBRAPO10.1590/S0101-74382008000300009info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSant'Anna,Annibal ParrachoRibeiro,Rodrigo Otavio de Araujoeng2009-01-26T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0101-74382008000300009Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/popehttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||sobrapo@sobrapo.org.br1678-51420101-7438opendoar:2009-01-26T00:00Pesquisa operacional (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
title Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
spellingShingle Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
Sant'Anna,Annibal Parracho
customer lifetime value
knowledge management
marketing
retail
modeling
title_short Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
title_full Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
title_fullStr Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
title_full_unstemmed Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
title_sort Application of stochastic models to determine customers lifetime value for a Brazilian supermarkets network
author Sant'Anna,Annibal Parracho
author_facet Sant'Anna,Annibal Parracho
Ribeiro,Rodrigo Otavio de Araujo
author_role author
author2 Ribeiro,Rodrigo Otavio de Araujo
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Sant'Anna,Annibal Parracho
Ribeiro,Rodrigo Otavio de Araujo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv customer lifetime value
knowledge management
marketing
retail
modeling
topic customer lifetime value
knowledge management
marketing
retail
modeling
description This paper studies strategies to access customer lifetime value (CLV). Traditionally, heuristics based on recency, frequency and monetary value variables (RFM) are used to determine the best customers. Here, some forms of directly exploring these parameters to predict CLV are compared to an approach based on fitting a stochastic model. The model employed is a composition of a model for the number of transactions along the residual lifetime and a model for the value spent. New evidence is raised on the effect of aggregating transactions monthly. The data analyzed refer to two years of purchases of a group of customers of the same entrance cohort of a fidelity program cadastre of a supermarkets network in Rio de Janeiro. Using the first year to calibrate and the second year to validate the models, good fit of both models to the series of individual data and coherent CLV predictions are obtained.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382008000300009
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382008000300009
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/S0101-74382008000300009
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Operacional v.28 n.3 2008
reponame:Pesquisa operacional (Online)
instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
instacron:SOBRAPO
instname_str Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
instacron_str SOBRAPO
institution SOBRAPO
reponame_str Pesquisa operacional (Online)
collection Pesquisa operacional (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Pesquisa operacional (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||sobrapo@sobrapo.org.br
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