SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Louzada,Francisco
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Suzuki,Adriano K., Salasar,Luis E.B., Ara,Anderson, Leite,José G.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Pesquisa operacional (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382015000300577
Resumo: ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.
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spelling SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASESBayesian inferenceFootball World Cupforecastingpoisson distributionsimulationABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional2015-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382015000300577Pesquisa Operacional v.35 n.3 2015reponame:Pesquisa operacional (Online)instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)instacron:SOBRAPO10.1590/0101-7438.2015.035.03.0577info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLouzada,FranciscoSuzuki,Adriano K.Salasar,Luis E.B.Ara,AndersonLeite,José G.eng2016-01-26T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0101-74382015000300577Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/popehttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||sobrapo@sobrapo.org.br1678-51420101-7438opendoar:2016-01-26T00:00Pesquisa operacional (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
title SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
spellingShingle SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
Louzada,Francisco
Bayesian inference
Football World Cup
forecasting
poisson distribution
simulation
title_short SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
title_full SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
title_fullStr SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
title_full_unstemmed SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
title_sort SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES
author Louzada,Francisco
author_facet Louzada,Francisco
Suzuki,Adriano K.
Salasar,Luis E.B.
Ara,Anderson
Leite,José G.
author_role author
author2 Suzuki,Adriano K.
Salasar,Luis E.B.
Ara,Anderson
Leite,José G.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Louzada,Francisco
Suzuki,Adriano K.
Salasar,Luis E.B.
Ara,Anderson
Leite,José G.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Bayesian inference
Football World Cup
forecasting
poisson distribution
simulation
topic Bayesian inference
Football World Cup
forecasting
poisson distribution
simulation
description ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382015000300577
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-74382015000300577
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/0101-7438.2015.035.03.0577
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Operacional v.35 n.3 2015
reponame:Pesquisa operacional (Online)
instname:Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
instacron:SOBRAPO
instname_str Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
instacron_str SOBRAPO
institution SOBRAPO
reponame_str Pesquisa operacional (Online)
collection Pesquisa operacional (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Pesquisa operacional (Online) - Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Operacional (SOBRAPO)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||sobrapo@sobrapo.org.br
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