Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UEFS |
Texto Completo: | http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/handle/tede/1421 |
Resumo: | Traffic accidents represent the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups in the world. In Brazil, the flows of goods and people occur mainly through the road system. At the same time, the country occupies fifth place in the ranking of countries with the highest rates of road traffic deaths, behind only India, China, USA, and Russia. In this sense, traffic accidents represent a health problem public and also, why not say, an environmental problem. As a result of the increased number of fatal accident victims over the years, it is necessary to scientific basis, to direct the actions to face this problem. To contribute to the formulation of public policies for the reduction of traffic accidents on federal highways, this work has the general objective of analyzing the accident variables refer to the total number of people, injured, injured light, seriously injured, unharmed, ignored and vehicles involved in accidents recorded on the federal highways of Bahia. We also intend to represent the structure, in addition to characterize the behavior of these variables as a function of time, through the application of the cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA). This coefficient is based on the methods of Statistical mechanics: DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), used to identify long-range autocorrelation and DCCA (Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis), estimates the exponent that characterizes the cross correlation between two non-stationary time series of the same size N. Several fields of knowledge have already been modeled through of the ρDCCA, such as the study of taxi accidents, climatic phenomena, financial market, crime indicators, industrial production behavior, dynamics of dengue cases, among others. To achieve this objective, we analyzed the data series referring to accidents reported by the Federal Highway Police (PRF) of Bahia, between 2007 and 2021. In general, we analyzed the existence of long-range cross-correlation between the dead variable with the others variables since reducing the number of fatal victims are one of the main objectives of PRF to mitigate traffic violence. The ρDCCA results indicated a correlation in all the crossings carried out, which shows that the fluctuations in the amount of Mortos is affected by fluctuations in the quantities of the other variables, according to a positive correlation (highs followed by highs or lows followed by lows). Among other characteristics, accidents were mainly caused by improper posture of the driver, most of which took place on the three main highways in the state, BR 101, BR 324, and BR 116, and most of the people involved were male. |
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Zebende, Gilney Figueira02239627751https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2420-9805http://lattes.cnpq.br/2464685002862801Mania, Edrian3921446816http://lattes.cnpq.br/884409852740521990870891553https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9939-1456http://lattes.cnpq.br/1389361738295580Santos, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos2023-07-04T20:39:42Z2022-08-24SANTOS, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos. Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries. 2022. 139 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Modelagem em Ciência da Terra e do Ambiente) - Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, 2022.http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/handle/tede/1421Traffic accidents represent the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups in the world. In Brazil, the flows of goods and people occur mainly through the road system. At the same time, the country occupies fifth place in the ranking of countries with the highest rates of road traffic deaths, behind only India, China, USA, and Russia. In this sense, traffic accidents represent a health problem public and also, why not say, an environmental problem. As a result of the increased number of fatal accident victims over the years, it is necessary to scientific basis, to direct the actions to face this problem. To contribute to the formulation of public policies for the reduction of traffic accidents on federal highways, this work has the general objective of analyzing the accident variables refer to the total number of people, injured, injured light, seriously injured, unharmed, ignored and vehicles involved in accidents recorded on the federal highways of Bahia. We also intend to represent the structure, in addition to characterize the behavior of these variables as a function of time, through the application of the cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA). This coefficient is based on the methods of Statistical mechanics: DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), used to identify long-range autocorrelation and DCCA (Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis), estimates the exponent that characterizes the cross correlation between two non-stationary time series of the same size N. Several fields of knowledge have already been modeled through of the ρDCCA, such as the study of taxi accidents, climatic phenomena, financial market, crime indicators, industrial production behavior, dynamics of dengue cases, among others. To achieve this objective, we analyzed the data series referring to accidents reported by the Federal Highway Police (PRF) of Bahia, between 2007 and 2021. In general, we analyzed the existence of long-range cross-correlation between the dead variable with the others variables since reducing the number of fatal victims are one of the main objectives of PRF to mitigate traffic violence. The ρDCCA results indicated a correlation in all the crossings carried out, which shows that the fluctuations in the amount of Mortos is affected by fluctuations in the quantities of the other variables, according to a positive correlation (highs followed by highs or lows followed by lows). Among other characteristics, accidents were mainly caused by improper posture of the driver, most of which took place on the three main highways in the state, BR 101, BR 324, and BR 116, and most of the people involved were male.Acidentes de trânsito representam a oitava causa de morte para todas as faixas etárias no mundo. No Brasil, os fluxos de bens e pessoas ocorrem, majoritariamente, por meio do sistema rodoviário. Ao mesmo tempo, o país ocupa o quinto lugar no ranking dos países com maiores índices de morte no trânsito, atrás apenas da Índia, China, EUA e Rússia. Nesse sentido, os acidentes de trânsito representam um problema de saúde pública e também, porque não dizer, um problema ambiental. Em decorrência do aumento absoluto de vítimas fatais dos acidentes ao longo dos anos, faz-se necessário o embasamento científico, para direcionar as ações de enfrentamento a essa problemática. Com o intuito de contribuir com a formulaçãoao de políticas públicas para a redução de acidentes de trânsito nas rodovias federais, este trabalho tem como objetivo geral analisar as variáveis dos acidentes referentes ao número total de: pessoas, feridos, feridos leves, feridos graves, ilesos, ignorados e veículos envolvidos nos acidentes registrados nas rodovias federias da Bahia. Pretendemos também representar a estrutura, além de caracterizar o comportamento dessas variáveis em função do tempo, por meio da aplicação do Coeficiente de Correlaçãoao Cruzada (ρDCCA). Esse coeficiente se baseia nos métodos da mecânica estatística: o DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), usado para identificar autocorrelação de longo alcance e o DCCA (Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis) que estima o expoente para caraterizar a correlação cruzada entre duas séries temporais não estacionárias de mesmo tamanho N. Diversos campos do conhecimento j´a foram modelados por meio do ρDCCA, a exemplo do estudo de acidentes de t´axi, fenômenos climáticos, mercado financeiro, indicadores de criminalidade, comportamento da produção industrial, dinâmica termporal dos casos de dengue, dentre outros. Para alcançar esse objetivo, analisamos as séries de dados referentes aos acidentes reportados pela Polícia Rodoviária Federal (PRF) da Bahia, entre 2007 e 2021. De maneira geral, analisaremos a existência de correlação cruzada de longo alcance entre a variável mortos com as demais variáveis visto que, reduzir o número de vítimas fatais é um dos principais objetivos da PRF para mitigar a violência no trânsito. Os resultados do ρDCCA indicaram correlação cruzada em todos os cruzamentos realizados, o que mostra que as oscilações na quantidade de Mortos é afetada pelas oscilações nas quantidades das demais variáveis, segundo uma correlação positiva (altas seguidas de altas ou baixas seguidas de baixas). Dentre outras características, os acidentes tiveram como causa principal a postura indevida do condutor, sendo que a maioria deles ocorreu nas três principais rodovias do estado, BR 101, BR 324 e BR 116 e a maior parte das pessoas envolvidas eram do sexo masculino.Submitted by Renata Aline Souza Silva (rassilva@uefs.br) on 2023-07-04T20:39:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos Santos.pdf: 16308952 bytes, checksum: 3c18ecfc54ea24b8292cbf60d87eed9d (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2023-07-04T20:39:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos Santos.pdf: 16308952 bytes, checksum: 3c18ecfc54ea24b8292cbf60d87eed9d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2022-08-24application/pdfporUniversidade Estadual de Feira de SantanaMestrado em Modelagem em Ciência da Terra e do AmbienteUEFSBrasilDEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS EXATASSéries temporaisDFADCCApDCCAAcidentes de trânsitoTime seriesDFADCCAAccidents trafficpDCCACIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRAAnálise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras sériesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis-885176421937510469600600600-5486832816611506211-4537326059604784016info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UEFSinstname:Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana (UEFS)instacron:UEFSORIGINALDissertação - Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos Santos.pdfDissertação - Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos Santos.pdfapplication/pdf16308952http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/bitstream/tede/1421/2/Disserta%C3%A7%C3%A3o+-+Roberta+Pimenta+Cunha+dos+Santos.pdf3c18ecfc54ea24b8292cbf60d87eed9dMD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82089http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/bitstream/tede/1421/1/license.txt7b5ba3d2445355f386edab96125d42b7MD51tede/14212023-07-04 17:39:42.429oai:tede2.uefs.br:8080:tede/1421Tk9UQTogQ09MT1FVRSBBUVVJIEEgU1VBIFBSP1BSSUEgTElDRU4/QQpFc3RhIGxpY2VuP2EgZGUgZXhlbXBsbyA/IGZvcm5lY2lkYSBhcGVuYXMgcGFyYSBmaW5zIGluZm9ybWF0aXZvcy4KCkxJQ0VOP0EgREUgRElTVFJJQlVJPz9PIE4/Ty1FWENMVVNJVkEKCkNvbSBhIGFwcmVzZW50YT8/byBkZXN0YSBsaWNlbj9hLCB2b2M/IChvIGF1dG9yIChlcykgb3UgbyB0aXR1bGFyIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBkZSBhdXRvcikgY29uY2VkZSA/IFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkZSAKWFhYIChTaWdsYSBkYSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUpIG8gZGlyZWl0byBuP28tZXhjbHVzaXZvIGRlIHJlcHJvZHV6aXIsICB0cmFkdXppciAoY29uZm9ybWUgZGVmaW5pZG8gYWJhaXhvKSwgZS9vdSAKZGlzdHJpYnVpciBhIHN1YSB0ZXNlIG91IGRpc3NlcnRhPz9vIChpbmNsdWluZG8gbyByZXN1bW8pIHBvciB0b2RvIG8gbXVuZG8gbm8gZm9ybWF0byBpbXByZXNzbyBlIGVsZXRyP25pY28gZSAKZW0gcXVhbHF1ZXIgbWVpbywgaW5jbHVpbmRvIG9zIGZvcm1hdG9zID91ZGlvIG91IHY/ZGVvLgoKVm9jPyBjb25jb3JkYSBxdWUgYSBTaWdsYSBkZSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgcG9kZSwgc2VtIGFsdGVyYXIgbyBjb250ZT9kbywgdHJhbnNwb3IgYSBzdWEgdGVzZSBvdSBkaXNzZXJ0YT8/byAKcGFyYSBxdWFscXVlciBtZWlvIG91IGZvcm1hdG8gcGFyYSBmaW5zIGRlIHByZXNlcnZhPz9vLgoKVm9jPyB0YW1iP20gY29uY29yZGEgcXVlIGEgU2lnbGEgZGUgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWRlIHBvZGUgbWFudGVyIG1haXMgZGUgdW1hIGM/cGlhIGEgc3VhIHRlc2Ugb3UgCmRpc3NlcnRhPz9vIHBhcmEgZmlucyBkZSBzZWd1cmFuP2EsIGJhY2stdXAgZSBwcmVzZXJ2YT8/by4KClZvYz8gZGVjbGFyYSBxdWUgYSBzdWEgdGVzZSBvdSBkaXNzZXJ0YT8/byA/IG9yaWdpbmFsIGUgcXVlIHZvYz8gdGVtIG8gcG9kZXIgZGUgY29uY2VkZXIgb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgY29udGlkb3MgCm5lc3RhIGxpY2VuP2EuIFZvYz8gdGFtYj9tIGRlY2xhcmEgcXVlIG8gZGVwP3NpdG8gZGEgc3VhIHRlc2Ugb3UgZGlzc2VydGE/P28gbj9vLCBxdWUgc2VqYSBkZSBzZXUgCmNvbmhlY2ltZW50bywgaW5mcmluZ2UgZGlyZWl0b3MgYXV0b3JhaXMgZGUgbmluZ3U/bS4KCkNhc28gYSBzdWEgdGVzZSBvdSBkaXNzZXJ0YT8/byBjb250ZW5oYSBtYXRlcmlhbCBxdWUgdm9jPyBuP28gcG9zc3VpIGEgdGl0dWxhcmlkYWRlIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcywgdm9jPyAKZGVjbGFyYSBxdWUgb2J0ZXZlIGEgcGVybWlzcz9vIGlycmVzdHJpdGEgZG8gZGV0ZW50b3IgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIHBhcmEgY29uY2VkZXIgPyBTaWdsYSBkZSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgCm9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGFwcmVzZW50YWRvcyBuZXN0YSBsaWNlbj9hLCBlIHF1ZSBlc3NlIG1hdGVyaWFsIGRlIHByb3ByaWVkYWRlIGRlIHRlcmNlaXJvcyBlc3Q/IGNsYXJhbWVudGUgCmlkZW50aWZpY2FkbyBlIHJlY29uaGVjaWRvIG5vIHRleHRvIG91IG5vIGNvbnRlP2RvIGRhIHRlc2Ugb3UgZGlzc2VydGE/P28gb3JhIGRlcG9zaXRhZGEuCgpDQVNPIEEgVEVTRSBPVSBESVNTRVJUQT8/TyBPUkEgREVQT1NJVEFEQSBURU5IQSBTSURPIFJFU1VMVEFETyBERSBVTSBQQVRST0M/TklPIE9VIApBUE9JTyBERSBVTUEgQUc/TkNJQSBERSBGT01FTlRPIE9VIE9VVFJPIE9SR0FOSVNNTyBRVUUgTj9PIFNFSkEgQSBTSUdMQSBERSAKVU5JVkVSU0lEQURFLCBWT0M/IERFQ0xBUkEgUVVFIFJFU1BFSVRPVSBUT0RPUyBFIFFVQUlTUVVFUiBESVJFSVRPUyBERSBSRVZJUz9PIENPTU8gClRBTUI/TSBBUyBERU1BSVMgT0JSSUdBPz9FUyBFWElHSURBUyBQT1IgQ09OVFJBVE8gT1UgQUNPUkRPLgoKQSBTaWdsYSBkZSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgc2UgY29tcHJvbWV0ZSBhIGlkZW50aWZpY2FyIGNsYXJhbWVudGUgbyBzZXUgbm9tZSAocykgb3UgbyhzKSBub21lKHMpIGRvKHMpIApkZXRlbnRvcihlcykgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIGRhIHRlc2Ugb3UgZGlzc2VydGE/P28sIGUgbj9vIGZhcj8gcXVhbHF1ZXIgYWx0ZXJhPz9vLCBhbD9tIGRhcXVlbGFzIApjb25jZWRpZGFzIHBvciBlc3RhIGxpY2VuP2EuCg==Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://tede2.uefs.br:8080/PUBhttp://tede2.uefs.br:8080/oai/requestbcuefs@uefs.br|| bcref@uefs.br||bcuefs@uefs.bropendoar:2023-07-04T20:39:42Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UEFS - Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana (UEFS)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
title |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
spellingShingle |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries Santos, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos Séries temporais DFA DCCA pDCCA Acidentes de trânsito Time series DFA DCCA Accidents traffic pDCCA CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA |
title_short |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
title_full |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
title_fullStr |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
title_sort |
Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries |
author |
Santos, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Zebende, Gilney Figueira |
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv |
02239627751 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2420-9805 |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2464685002862801 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Mania, Edrian |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1ID.fl_str_mv |
3921446816 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8844098527405219 |
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv |
90870891553 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9939-1456 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1389361738295580 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos |
contributor_str_mv |
Zebende, Gilney Figueira Mania, Edrian |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Séries temporais DFA DCCA pDCCA Acidentes de trânsito |
topic |
Séries temporais DFA DCCA pDCCA Acidentes de trânsito Time series DFA DCCA Accidents traffic pDCCA CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Time series DFA DCCA Accidents traffic pDCCA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA |
description |
Traffic accidents represent the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups in the world. In Brazil, the flows of goods and people occur mainly through the road system. At the same time, the country occupies fifth place in the ranking of countries with the highest rates of road traffic deaths, behind only India, China, USA, and Russia. In this sense, traffic accidents represent a health problem public and also, why not say, an environmental problem. As a result of the increased number of fatal accident victims over the years, it is necessary to scientific basis, to direct the actions to face this problem. To contribute to the formulation of public policies for the reduction of traffic accidents on federal highways, this work has the general objective of analyzing the accident variables refer to the total number of people, injured, injured light, seriously injured, unharmed, ignored and vehicles involved in accidents recorded on the federal highways of Bahia. We also intend to represent the structure, in addition to characterize the behavior of these variables as a function of time, through the application of the cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA). This coefficient is based on the methods of Statistical mechanics: DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), used to identify long-range autocorrelation and DCCA (Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis), estimates the exponent that characterizes the cross correlation between two non-stationary time series of the same size N. Several fields of knowledge have already been modeled through of the ρDCCA, such as the study of taxi accidents, climatic phenomena, financial market, crime indicators, industrial production behavior, dynamics of dengue cases, among others. To achieve this objective, we analyzed the data series referring to accidents reported by the Federal Highway Police (PRF) of Bahia, between 2007 and 2021. In general, we analyzed the existence of long-range cross-correlation between the dead variable with the others variables since reducing the number of fatal victims are one of the main objectives of PRF to mitigate traffic violence. The ρDCCA results indicated a correlation in all the crossings carried out, which shows that the fluctuations in the amount of Mortos is affected by fluctuations in the quantities of the other variables, according to a positive correlation (highs followed by highs or lows followed by lows). Among other characteristics, accidents were mainly caused by improper posture of the driver, most of which took place on the three main highways in the state, BR 101, BR 324, and BR 116, and most of the people involved were male. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2022-08-24 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-04T20:39:42Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SANTOS, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos. Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries. 2022. 139 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Modelagem em Ciência da Terra e do Ambiente) - Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, 2022. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/handle/tede/1421 |
identifier_str_mv |
SANTOS, Roberta Pimenta Cunha dos. Análise das correlações em séries temporais de acidentes de trânsito e de outras séries. 2022. 139 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Modelagem em Ciência da Terra e do Ambiente) - Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, 2022. |
url |
http://tede2.uefs.br:8080/handle/tede/1421 |
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por |
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por |
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600 600 600 |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana |
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Mestrado em Modelagem em Ciência da Terra e do Ambiente |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UEFS |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS EXATAS |
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Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana |
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