MÉTODOS ESTATÍSTICOS NA ANÁLISE INTERANUAL DAS CHUVAS: UMA APRECIAÇÃO DA SÉRIE HISTÓRICA DO MUNICÍPIO DE CAICÓ/RN

• Autor(a) principal: Luna Lucena, Rebecca
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Outros Autores: Pereira da Silva , Flávia Letícia, Pereira de Oliveira, Gislana, de Lima Neto , José Melinho
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Cadernos do IME. Série Estatística (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://www.e-publicacoes.uerj.br/cadest/article/view/79108
• topic: Análise climática; Variabilidade; Valores médios e extremos; Probabilidade; Tendência

The main objective of this research was to evaluate the inter-annual variability of rainfall in the "Seridó potiguar" region through different statistical methods based on the municipality of Caicó, located in the interior of the state of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, annual rainfall data from a 110-year historical series (1913–2022) was used. Analyses were carried out using measures of position and dispersion, separatrices, boxplot, probability, return time, and trend analysis. Among the main results found for Caicó-RN, the mean and median were ~650 mm/year, which classifies Caicó's climate as semi-arid. The inter-annual variability of rainfall in the municipality was found to be very high, with a coefficient of variation of over 40%. When the probability was analyzed, it was observed that the rainfall classes with values of less than 800 millimeters were the most frequent, representing more than 60% of the historical series. Regression analysis showed no trend towards an increase or decrease in rainfall. The methods adopted yielded results that would have been difficult to discover without their use, such as average values, the position and quantification of positive and negative extremes, and the analysis of the recurrence time of a given rainfall value and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The methods adopted yielded results that would have been difficult to discover without their use, such as average values, the position and quantification of positive and negative extremes, the analysis of the recurrence time of a given rainfall value, and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The use of the Microsoft Excel and Jamovi programs was useful for developing the formulas and creating the graphs, and because they have a user-friendly interface, we believe that they can be used for statistical analysis in the evaluation of environmental and climatic variables.