Modelagem dinâmica espacial aplicada à previsão da demanda hídrica

• Autor(a) principal: Lopes, Tereza Margarida Xavier de Melo
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Outros Autores: Silva, Samiria Maria Oliveira da, Oliveira, Laís Marques de, Carvalho, Taís Maria Nunes, Rodrigues, Brenda Arielly Mendonça, Frota, Renata Locarno
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/63631
• topic: Previsão de demanda hídrica; Autômatos celulares

Population growth, climatic variations and the development of consumption patterns tend to accentuate periods of water scarcity in several global conjunctures. In this bias, forecasts related to water consumption are fundamental for the elaboration of projects capable of mitigating the complications of droughts and increasing the resilience of supply systems. Thus, the present work makes a forecast of urban water demand through dynamic modeling based on Cellular Automata (AC’s). The city of Fortaleza (CE) was used as a case study in order to prospect water consumption for the year 2040. The results indicate that the prolongation of current trends in the growth of consumption patterns in Fortaleza, should generate a rate of average annual growth of approximately 0.96%, providing an increase of 33% from 2010 (base year) to 2040 (forecast horizon). In the face of such a situation, it is extremely necessary to develop strategies capable of reducing consumption patterns and designing favorable water balances.